John Coulter: Sinn Fein going to the royal coronation might be part of a move away from its Westminster abstention policy

In short, Sinn Fein politicians ‘playing curtsey’ to King Charles III is a three-pronged canvassing stunt. Having overtaken the DUP at Stormont by two seats after the last assembly election, Sinn Fein is planning a double whammy over the Paisley-founded party by pushing the DUP into second place again in terms of councillors elected across Northern Ireland’s 11 councils.

In 2019, the DUP emerged on top with 122 elected councillors compared to Sinn Fein’s tally of 105. But to beat the DUP on May 18, Sinn Fein needs to eat even more into the Catholic middle class and moderate nationalist lobby, which traditionally was the bastion of the SDLP. By making sure there is plenty of footage and photos of Sinn Fein elected representatives at the coronation, the republican party can fuel the perception it is no longer the blunt apologist of the IRA, but is a genuinely democratic nationalist party – basically, the old Irish Independence Party of the 1970s rebranded.

Secondly, with opinion polls showing an SF surge in the Republic, attending such a prestigious Royal event as the coronation will also fuel the perception among southern-based voters that SF can be trusted with the reins of government after the next Dail general election. Again, SF will be targeting traditional middle class voters from Fianna Fail’s election base as well as the youth vote and first-time voters for whom the IRA is merely a name in history books.

Thirdly, SF has made no secret of its desire for a border poll on Irish unity. Whilst a Tory government at Westminster will not grant such a demand, there is always the chance a Labour government under boss Sir Keir Starmer would grant this republican wish. However, the next Westminster poll may also be a close run election. SF currently has seven MPs, but because of the outdated abstentionist policy, the party does not take its Commons seats over the oath of allegiance. Appearing at the coronation may be the latest stage in a carefully thought-out long war plan to convince the SF membership to abandon abstentionism.

After all, this process began in the mid 1980s when the Adams/McGuinness leadership successfully persuaded the movement to drop its abstentionist policy towards TDs taking their Dail seats. In spite of a walkout by hardliners to form the breakaway republican Sinn Fein party, mainstream Provisional Sinn Fein now has almost 40 TDs in Leinster House. Gone, too, is the boycott of Stormont which the party adopted for the 1982-86 assembly as well as the 1996-98 Northern Ireland Forum. SF now not only allows its MLAs to take their assembly seats, but when the power-sharing executive was fully functioning also took up ministerial posts and operated the partitionist parliament in Belfast!

So with taking seats at council, Assembly, Dail and European levels, the only barrier which remains is the House of Commons. Seven SF MPs, for example, could be in a strong bargaining position with British Labour if the latter only needed a handful of MPs to guarantee Starmer the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Put bluntly, would Sinn Fein drop abstentionism to prop up a British Labour government at Westminster in exchange for a guaranteed border poll, especially, if like the Good Friday Agreement referenda, that border poll was all-island and not just limited to the six counties of Northern Ireland? Would SF then be able to call upon Biden’s billions or all 32 counties rejoining the European Union as a new nation as a way of financially bankrolling the New Ireland?

Given the opinion poll collapse for support for the Scottish National Party over the financial allegations, could British Labour win back enough seats north of the English border at the next general election in the event of an SNP electoral collapse? While dissident republican terrorism still remains a threat in Northern Ireland, its various political mouthpieces still remain on the fringes and are no threat to SF politically.

Sinn Fein is deciding which is the bigger ace card – the fact that the party is organised on an all-Ireland basis unlike the SDLP, or counter the SDLP’s influence at Westminster by SF dropping abstentionism. I believe that SF has an agenda. Why else would the republican movement’s ruling IRA Army Council give the green light to elected representatives attending a royal showpiece. If the former IRA commander, the late Martin McGuinness, can shake hands with the late Queen Elizabeth, I suspect that Sinn Fein will milk the coronation politically in exchange for ditching abstentionism.

• Dr John Coulter has been a journalist since 1978, including with this newspaper