Owen Polley: Sorry Sir Keir, but despite what you say the Irish Sea border is about to get much harder

With crushing predictability, though, trade barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland are actually about to get harder, as the latest tranche of Windsor Framework regulations are implemented tomorrow.

This is particularly serious, because the situation is already so bad, as a new survey by the Federation for Small Businesses (FSB) underlined last week.

The organisation represents small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of Northern Ireland’s economy and perform a similar role for communities across the UK. In this province in particular, these businesses employ more people than the public sector and the rest of the private sector combined.

Yet, they are also exactly the kinds of companies that have been hammered by the framework, and few of our political parties seem to care.

The FSB survey found that 78% of respondents in Northern Ireland (i.e. small or medium businesses) have been affected negatively by the Windsor Framework. Shockingly, over one-third of companies that previously traded between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (in either direction) have simply stopped, because the Irish Sea border makes it so complicated.

This pattern was ‘most pronounced’ for firms on the mainland that once moved goods to Northern Ireland.

This is more evidence that the framework has caused significant ‘trade diversion’. Many businesses here that formerly bought supplies from GB are now forced to buy instead from the Republic or elsewhere in the EU, increasing their costs and giving them logistical headaches.

In the original NI protocol, the government was granted the right to take action, including temporarily suspending the protocol, if the sea border caused ‘diversion of trade’. Instead, despite ample proof that this has happened, it is now scarcely mentioned at Westminster and rarely at Stormont.

The irony, of course, was that the framework was presented as a potential advantage. Rishi Sunak claimed it would make this province into the “most exciting economic zone” in the world.

In reality, the sea border has had almost no benefits, and the gains it offers a tiny number of companies are vastly outweighed by the disadvantages it creates for others. Invest NI has already admitted that ‘dual market access’ has not brought a single foreign company to our shores. The FSB says diplomatically that this potential ‘competitive advantage’ is ‘not being realised for most’.

Why is it, then, that we still hear our politicians, even unionists, urging businesses to exploit the ‘opportunities’ presented by the Windsor Framework?

The former DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, for example, claimed that the sea border could offer benefits to companies. That assertion was challenged at the start of 2024 by Sammy Wilson.

Recently, though, even the East Antrim MP published a tweet, claiming that Indian companies were considering Northern Ireland “as a base to access the EU market”.

The DUP man, who was a keen Brexiteer and a sceptic about the ‘Safeguarding the Union’ deal, denied that his message promoted the framework. He might have anticipated, though, that its wording would be greeted like a gift by the ‘best of both worlds’ swindlers.

At the very least, it was the latest example of the party often sounding confused about the Irish Sea border.

It was poor timing too. From tomorrow, ‘Not for EU’ labels, which are already required for most meat and dairy produce, will also be needed for a vast range of food and drink, as well as other products deemed a ‘risk’ to Brussels’ single market.

This regime, which does not apply to the rest of the UK, makes it more likely that companies in GB will stop selling goods here, rather than conform with costly new rules.

At the last minute, the government tried to address the threat of empty shelves, by introducing legislation that would allow ministers to force nationwide labelling for some goods, if there is a risk of them disappearing from Northern Ireland. These panicky laws will not reassure anybody.

Firstly, they are at ministers’ discretion and will not apply to small companies, so they are highly unlikely to address the problem effectively. It is entirely possible that the powers will not be used, even if there is evidence of disruption to our market, and, in any case, lots of suppliers are exempt.

Secondly, the legislation could impose, suddenly, costly labelling regimes on businesses from Great Britain, based only on the EU’s irrational and unreasonable demands. That seems grossly unfair and it is a long way from the original suggestion that labels would be required as standard across the UK, to prevent Northern Ireland being edged further from the British internal market.

This ever deteriorating situation is as predictable as it is outrageous, yet the response at Westminster and Stormont is still largely indifference. For nationalists and Alliance, this is all just an outcome of Brexit, and their overwhelming priority is to keep us aligned with the EU, even though that amounts to a colossal, and perfectly conscious, decision to support economic self-harm.

Unionists, for the most part, are opposed to the sea border and understand the difficulties it creates. But many are still inclined to minimise the issues or lapse into platitudes about making the best of it. They should be clear instead that it is, and was always going to be, an unnecessary disaster.