Owen Polley: The Windsor ​Framework has left Northern Ireland in a uniquely vulnerable position that could throw up endless problems

In the 19th and 20th centuries, the right became increasingly associated with free trade. Many conservative thinkers argued that governments should try to get out of the way of enterprise, by lowering taxes and tariffs for businesses.

The left was usually more sceptical about ‘globalism’. It often defended countries’ right to protect their own markets and shut out foreign involvement, through tariffs or labour restrictions.

These traditional positions were never absolute and they had already become confused. In many cases, though, they have been completely upended by Donald Trump.

It was always a bit weird that left-wing ‘progressives’ felt so attached to the EU, which created a huge market and distanced ordinary people from decision making.

Admittedly, though, the bloc was also known for its love of regulating industries and shutting out foreign businesses.

Now, in an ironic twist, many of Brussels’ staunchest supporters, including Northern Ireland’s Alliance Party, sound like convinced free-traders.

They slammed the US president for raising tariffs, which are cast as an obvious evil, claiming that he endangered the global economy as a result.

By the same token, some of the fiercest free market voices have largely excused America’s behaviour. The Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, said that the president was merely keeping his promises, although he admitted that the scale was “a bit excessive”.

It was rather different to the Brexit ideal of Britain becoming ‘Singapore-on-Thames’.

Across the west, the left-right divide had already become less focussed on the economy in recent years. In the UK, this process was accelerated by Brexit, which stoked a kind of culture war, centred on identity.

In theory, at least, the Conservatives and others on the right became more focused on threats posed by immigration, as well as countering fashionable ideas about race, gender and diversity. The left, meanwhile, found itself defending formerly free market notions about the movement of people. It also looked down on some of its traditional supporters, who were worried about jobs and resources, portraying them as intolerant or racist.

It’s an increasingly confusing picture. And it’s hard to see how all this will work out practically, in the months to come.

I pointed out last week that many business leaders in Northern Ireland are concerned that Trump’s ‘liberation day’ could create serious economic problems here.

The US is our biggest foreign market for goods, if we exclude the Republic of Ireland.

And, thanks to the Irish Sea border, we remain effectively in the European Union for trade purposes. So the goods we buy from America will be subject to Brussels’ rules and duties, rather than Westminster’s.

Trump’s administration decided initially to impose 20% tariffs on the EU and 10% tariffs on the UK. That meant, if a US company wanted to buy goods from Northern Ireland, it would have to pay the normal cost to the seller and 10% tax to the US government. In the case of products from the Republic, that went up to 20%.

The president hoped that businesses in the US would abandon expensive foreign purchases and buy American instead. And he claimed this would restore fairness to world trade, which, in his view, had become slanted against his country.

For our businesses, the worry was that Brussels would retaliate, by raising its own levies on US goods. This process was already under way, with 25% tariffs anticipated on a range of products, according to reports from journalists at Reuters.

The first tranche was to come into force on the 15th of April, with further stages on the 15th of May and the 1st of December. As a result, our firms were expecting to pay substantially more to buy products from America than their counterparts in the rest of the UK.

In a sudden development, though, just days after his initial announcement caused stock market chaos, the president declared that he would pause many tariffs for 90 days. This included the 20% rate on goods imported from the EU.

There would be a flat rate of 10% instead, so Brussels’ position became temporarily the same as that of the UK.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, quickly welcomed Trump’s change of mind.

His decision to halt new tariffs, she said, was “an important step towards stabilising the global economy”. Those mysterious bond markets, which have such influence over today’s politicians, were ‘rocketing’ again, rather than causing worldwide panic.

For Northern Ireland, it looked like a possible reprieve.

In response to Trump’s pause, EU member countries delayed their own retaliatory measures for 90 days.

In theory, this gives America and the EU just under three months to come up with a solution and avoid more economic chaos. If the two sides reach a deal, perhaps Northern Irish firms could still avoid getting hammered yet again for our arrangements under the Windsor Framework.

On a practical level, that would be the best result. But these events should be taken as a warning.

Northern Ireland was promised that it would have the ‘best of both worlds’ by straddling the British and EU economies. In fact, we are in a uniquely precarious position that has the potential to throw up endless problems.

Many of these we can anticipate, but others will be unintended consequences of world events, and we will never be able to accurately predict those nasty surprises.