Owen Polley: Unionists face turbulent year, with justified protest at the Irish Sea border but a republican claim that Northern Ireland is not working

Indeed, there is a good chance that these polls will be held on the same day in May.

This electoral test is complicated by a more fundamental, political predicament that it is not entirely within unionism’s power to solve. It is inevitable, though, that it will have to grapple with the consequences sooner or later.

The Northern Ireland Protocol is an overwhelmingly important issue for the United Kingdom. It is not an exaggeration to say that it could be existential. The parties are justified in using up political capital as they demand a solution that will repair the damage that this deal did to the Union.

At the same time, investing so much energy in a campaign to remove the Irish Sea border inevitably makes it difficult for unionists to make an appealing case for strengthening our place in the UK. And it allows unionism’s opponents to claim that Northern Ireland isn’t working, or that unionist parties lack ideas for improving people’s lives where everyday issues like health, education and the economy are concerned.

These dilemmas are connected to some big debates about what Ulster unionism is, what it wants and what message it chooses to articulate.

You still hear, occasionally, the view that unionist parties need to ‘move on’ from the constitutional issue, because it is, for the time being, settled. The polls consistently show that there is no demand for Northern Ireland’s annexation by the Republic, so, according to this way of thinking, there is no threat to the Union and it is self-destructive to adopt a ‘defensive’ approach to politics.

This logic may have been persuasive in 2014, but, unfortunately, things have changed in the intervening years.

Some people believe that the purpose of unionism is simply to prevent an all-Ireland state, but that’s a narrow and depressing perspective. The protocol showed, if there was any doubt, that the Union is more likely to be dismantled piece by piece than defeated democratically through a referendum on the constitutional position.

If we cannot trade freely with the rest of the nation, if citizens here don’t enjoy the same political rights as their compatriots in Great Britain and if Brussels rather than Westminster controls important aspects of life here, in what way are we authentically part of the UK? Our British status is at best symbolic or nominal, at worst meaningless.

Many people, including some unionists, view unionism as primarily a culture or identity. At its best, it is neither of these things. It is a genuine and deeply felt political allegiance to the United Kingdom, that wants Northern Ireland to play a full role in the political, ecomomic and cultural life of our nation state.

Some critics will point out that unionists have not explained this way of thinking very effectively or that, often, it doesn’t seem to guide their policies. That’s a fair point, and if these instincts were better understood by people outside unionism, then maybe they would appreciate why the protocol is so devastating and unacceptable to pro-Union politicians and voters.

Unionists badly need an acceptable solution to the Irish Sea border and, for the time being, they have little leverage other than the DUP’s decision to withdraw from power-sharing. You can argue about the wisdom or the timing of that tactic, but it was responsible for what little urgency we do see from the government, even if it had little effect on Brussels.

It is, though, a protest measure and a crisis measure, and the longer it goes on, the more it will look like failure. The party has taken a clear position and that may allow it to recover some of the electoral support it lost last year, but it is unlikely to remain popular indefinitely.

Last week, there was almost no mention of the content of James Cleverly’s visit, thanks to Sinn Fein’s histrionics. It seemed, though, that he had little to tell local politicians, other than overselling the significance of a data sharing arrangement with the EU.

While London and Brussels may reach an agreement to cut customs checks, there are few signs that they are close to a deal on the constitutional issues that are so important to unionists. It is likely that the parties will still be trying to cajole the government into resolving these points unilaterally, as the year progresses.

This is a project that will not be made easier by unionism’s decades long failure to cultivate relationships at Westminster, play a constructive role in national politics or explain its position in a way that attracts sympathy on the mainland.

The UK now has a cautious prime minister, with no particular history of emphasising unionist themes, who seems to want a rapprochment with the EU. It is reasonable to doubt that he will risk confrontation with Brussels to repair Northern Ireland’s constitutional position.

Now that the Union is in a genuine crisis, unionists will of course rue their failure to promote their case more positively and win friends and influence when times were stable.

That’s an important lesson, but it’s not going to help them in their current predicament. It will be a turbulent year ahead, and a difficult one to navigate for unionist politicians.

ENDS