Owen Polley: Whoever becomes next Tory leader needs to impose order quickly

The uncertainty at Westminster was exacerbated yesterday, as Liz Truss resigned from the prime minister’s post after just 44 days in office. She will become the shortest serving premier in the UK’s history, when another Tory leadership election is concluded next week.
Prime Minister, Liz Truss with her husband Hugh O'Leary, makes a statement outside 10 Downing Street, London, where she announced her resignation as Prime Minister.Prime Minister, Liz Truss with her husband Hugh O'Leary, makes a statement outside 10 Downing Street, London, where she announced her resignation as Prime Minister.
Prime Minister, Liz Truss with her husband Hugh O'Leary, makes a statement outside 10 Downing Street, London, where she announced her resignation as Prime Minister.

This chaotic episode is not just a personal embarrassment for Ms Truss - it puts the future of the Conservatives in doubt. The Tories are often regarded as the natural ‘party of power’, but they have always been made up of a coalition of politicians with different perspectives on the economy and social matters.

When Liz Truss beat Rishi Sunak, just weeks ago, in the previous leadership contest, it was viewed as a victory for the Conservatives’ free market right. She promised tax cuts and policies that would grow the economy.

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Among many Tory activists, these were popular ideas, but they didn’t necessarily resonate with the new crop of MPs who won seats as part of Boris Johnson’s hefty majority at the end of 2019. The Conservatives’ success in the so-called ‘red wall’, previously dominated by Labour, was based largely on defending Brexit and making generous spending commitments.

Some of these internal contradictions and rivalries have been evident in the past few weeks, as the Tories turned on yet another prime minister. Ms Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, her short-lived chancellor, exacerbated the situation by rushing into policy announcements, without explaining their ideas for creating growth properly to the public or the financial markets.

The Conservatives’ short-term electoral prospects now look bleak, irrespective of who becomes leader. The electorate is acutely aware of their internal divisions, thanks to months of infighting, constant resignations and briefing wars that started in the later part of Boris Johnson’s leadership.

It could be that the country is simply ready for a change. Although the Tories have rarely enjoyed comfortable majorities, they have held the prime minister’s office for over twelve years now. The infighting that marked Jeremy Corbyn’s spell in charge of Labour has largely stopped and it is the Conservatives that appear to be irreparably divided.

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If the new Conservative leader is to have any chance of success, he or she must rebuild the coalition within their own party and start persuading voters that it stands for something clear and easy to explain. Most of all, the new leader must immediately show that they are in charge, that they are reliable and that they are competent. The reports that Boris Johnson is plotting a comeback are hardly a hopeful sign.

In the recent past, the Tories portrayed themselves as a responsible political force that could be relied upon to put the country ahead of selfish political considerations and take difficult but necessary decisions. That self-image has taken a beating in recent months.

The Conservatives’ undignified civil war has created a prevailing sense of uncertainty that’s been felt all over the country. In Northern Ireland, where we are still trying to find a way around the problems created by the protocol, it had a particularly destabilising effect.

Now, we must wait to find out how a new prime minister will approach negotiations with the EU and whether he or she still intends to implement the government’s protocol bill. In the background, there remains the prospect of a Stormont election, if the new secretary of state sticks to Chris Heaton-Harris’s line.

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Meanwhile, we don’t know whether the government will persist with its energy costs scheme after six months have elapsed. The current chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced a review of this policy earlier in the week. When can Northern Irish households even expect help with their current bills?

There is an argument that Liz Truss was treated poorly by Conservative MPs and that her demise was hastened by the unrelenting pressure created by 24 hour media coverage. There is also a view that she brought many problems on herself, through rash and inexperienced behaviour.

Whichever interpretation you subscribe to, it’s important for the whole UK, and for Northern Ireland in particular, that a new leader quickly restores order and provides some certainty at Westminster. If the mood of political chaos continues, our longstanding issues will likely remain unresolved.