Peter Lynas: A faster return to schools would show that we really do all care about education

Parents are beginning to wonder. Part of the reason we send our kids to school is to learn about facts.

So what are the facts.

On Monday March 8, yesterday, all school children in England went back to school.

In Scotland, some children went back in February and next week all primary school children are expected to be in class with all secondary school children in part-time.

Wales are following a similar pattern to Scotland.

In Ireland, where vaccine rates are much lower, some primary school pupils are already in and all are expected to return next week.

Many primary school pupils are back in France, Germany, Spain and America.

On current plans, Northern Ireland will have no primary school pupils in class on the week beginning March 22. It is hard to find anywhere else taking a similar approach.

Perhaps the reason is that our Covid statistics are much worse than other places.

Again the facts might help.

Our infection rates per hundred thousand are falling fast and are in line with the rest of the UK.

The number of hospital admissions and the number of inpatients fell by over a third last week. We are now admitting a handful of patients each day. Covid patients occupy less than a quarter of ICU beds and less than 10% of all hospital beds. The R number – the rate at which the virus is thought to be spreading – has dropped to between 0.65 and 0.75. We are doing as well or better than many other places where schools have returned.

Perhaps, the concern is that if we move too fast we many end up in another lockdown. No-one wants that, but the real game changer here is vaccines. More than 600,000 people in Northern Ireland have now been vaccinated — more than 40% of the adult population.

If supplies increase as expected, 80% of the adult population could be vaccinated by May and everyone will have been offered a first dose by June. We now know that vaccination cuts transmission by two thirds – based on one dose. Vaccinations also reduce the risk of hospitalisation by close to 90%.

The scientific and medical evidence all supports schools returning. Professor Chris Whitty, the England CMO said: “If you keep children out of school, every single one of the children you keep out of school is disadvantaged.”

He went on to point out that the benefits from pupils going back to school vastly outweigh the “incredibly low” risks they face from Covid.

The executive has published its pathway out of restrictions document. There are four over-arching principles for making decisions - they must be evidence-based, restrictions must be necessary, they should be proportionate and finally the exit plan must be sustainable.

All the publicly available evidence supports schools returning before Easter. If decisions are being based on other secret evidence distinguishing us from the rest of the UK and Ireland this should be published. In terms of necessity, the NHS is not at capacity, while infection rates are plummeting and vaccination rates are climbing.

The proportionate test is clear that education can only be restricted if the risk posed by changes is severe – that is not the case. Finally, any change must be sustainable.

Without vaccination, this point might be arguable, but the speed and scale of the roll now ensures sustainability.

Lord Sumption, the former Supreme Court judge, has written and spoken about the use of fear, the risk to civil liberties and the rising case for civil disobedience in relation to lockdown. At the weekend I saw a sports team out training, groups of (mainly) men on bicycles and groups of (mainly) women dipping in the sea.

I doubt many had listened to Lord Sumption but they were making his point for him. Laws that cannot be justified will not be obeyed.

The executive do not need to justify lifting lockdown restrictions, they need to justify keeping them. If they cannot, people will make their own decisions and that is a more risky pathway out of lockdown.

The executive has made clear that they will be guided by the data. That data is publicly available and overwhelming supports the return of schools before Easter.

Concerns about wellbeing, mental health, and the needs of vulnerable children all point to a quicker return. Children and parents don’t have a representative group or a sophisticated lobbying network.Perhaps that has allowed politicians to kick kid’s education into the long grass. But our children are frustrated.

Parents are tired. Families are struggling. We trust that everyone really does care about education.

Now is the time to show it.

• Peter Lynas is a former barrister and UK director of Evangelical Alliance. He is writing in a personal capacity

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