Philip Smith: It's time for mainstream unionism to reflect, change and realign

Unionism is now more diverse in its representation but some of its remaining seats are highly marginal like East Londonderry.

While the total pro-Union vote at 43.5% is still higher than the pro-nationalist vote at 40.4%, with Sinn Fein now as the largest party at Westminster, many unionists are concerned about the future.

There is a saying in Ulster Unionism, ‘country first, party second, self third’. Unfortunately, at times, some of those standing for unionist parties have got the saying the wrong way round.

It might equally be said that unionist political parties would be better putting country and the electorate ahead of personalities and relatively minor policy differences.

Why do we need a multitude of unionist parties when there are fewer differences between them than there are within factions of Labour, the Conservatives or even the Liberal Democrats?

Unionist unity has always been a holy grail. Although the word unity has now been replaced with realignment, the outworking is still the same. However, is it desirable or feasible?

After the Belfast Agreement referendum and during the Ulster Unionist political civil wars of the late 1990s/early noughties, some so-called ‘baby barristers’ within the UUP formed a group to oppose the Good Friday Agreement called ‘Union First’.

Nearly 25 years later, the most recent Lucid Talk poll showed that 71% of unionist voters still prioritise the Union first. Pro-Union voters want to see their representatives come together to maximise unionist representation and to maintain the Union.

Would realignment deliver a better electoral outcome for unionists? It would secure the position of first minister, win Lagan Valley at the next Westminster election, make East Antrim comfortable, just about protect East Londonderry and help take political control of councils across the east of the Province. On this basis it sounds like a ‘no brainer’.

However, there are two key issues that must be considered. Firstly, as the old left-wing joke goes, the initial item on any agenda may well be the split. Assuming that is avoided, that personalities and old feuds are kept in check, would it be just a one trick pony?

If nationalists see unionists coming together for electoral success, will they not just do the same? Potentially, yes, and that is why realignment has to be based on substance rather than just short-term electoral expediency.

The realignment versus unity debate is more than just semantics. Having every unionist from Jim Allister to Mike Nesbitt in the one group will not work in the long term. There has to be space still for mavericks but mainstream unionism that wants to 'Make NI Work' and grow support for the Union can come together.

Unionism would need to rebrand, create a new name and structure, and, most importantly, understand that to succeed it has to become open to all who are pro-Union and want Northern Ireland to succeed.

That would require the jettisoning of some baggage, creating a genuinely new party that can attract support from outside of traditional unionism.

It would have to be a careful balance of pragmatism with a policy platform that had wide appeal but still has substance.

The danger is that an approach that is too ‘right’ loses more moderate voters to Alliance, too ‘liberal’ and more conservative unionists go to a more hardline grouping.

What it cannot be is an attempt to deepen a siege mentality and create a core vote approach that will alienate not only centrists but a sizeable minority of pro-Union voters and currently non-voters.

The prize is to build a unionist politics that has a larger vote than the current sum of its parts.

Is that too much of an ask of our current unionist political leaders? For Gavin Robinson and Doug Beattie, I don’t think so. For some individuals no doubt there would be severe difficulties – which brings me back to the key question. Is the priority ‘country, party, self’?

If remaining in the unionist comfort zone is the goal, then realignment, electoral pacts or side deals will not sustain the Union in the long term, and we can look forward to the whittling away of seats at future elections and increased pressure for a border poll.

There are three years until the next planned election. Time for mainstream unionism to reflect, change and realign.

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l Philip Smith is the co-founder of the pro-Union campaign group Uniting UK, UUP councillor in Ards & North Down Council and former MLA for Strangford and Mayor of Ards