Steve Aiken: Israel got its act together and with the security balance in the Middle East now restored, it's time for lasting peace
On October 7, 2023 the balance of the armed peace was broken in the Middle East, coupled with a shock wave that was sent around the world - a shock that emboldened extremism including antisemitism everywhere.
Hopefully that balance has been restored, and as the fate of the Jewish is determined by that balance, we are now, hopefully, at a turning point in the geopolitical future of the region.
When we look back at October 7, the strategic shock, not only to Israel but also to its main western orientated allies, was that Hamas could have breached Israel’s security.
They did it without the indications and warnings that were missed by the most intelligence enabled nation anywhere, and unleashed Iranian-backed warfare which stretched from theatre ballistic missile strikes to the raping and beheading of children, whilst, along with their fellow travellers and useful idiots, dominating the ‘war’ of the narrative.
How could Israel and its western supporters not have seen this coming?
The major outcome of October 7 was a highly emboldened Iran and a fearful Israel. Deterrence, hard won, on the Golan, in Sinai and striking against terrorists across the globe, was lost.
It was not just Iran that benefited - antisemitic groups everywhere felt they had agency. Putin also saw this as a lack of resolve by the US and others, and doubled down on his attacks in the Ukraine and elsewhere across a complacent Europe.
We all lost on October 7. Our streets have been filled with antisemitic marchers; we bizarrely moved to recognise a non-existent Palestinian State, appeasing Hamas; many of our countries started boycotting Israeli goods and services (with the obvious exception of those that they needed for their own economic and defence needs – remember hypocrisy is not just limited to the Irish government).
So just why then has the security balance now been restored?
Simply because Israel, as it has done so often before, got its game together and struck back.
Those who actually understand the Middle East, rather than those wallowing in naivety, realise the issue has always been the Iranian ayatollahs, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as their toll, pushing for regional dominance.
They saw the public, as well as the private, moves towards rapprochement between Israel and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), but above all the Saudis, under the US-brokered Abraham Accords as undermining their plan.
Israel rightly saw Iran as the strategic centre of gravity and the Iranian nuclear programme as Iran’s critical vulnerability.
The road to ‘Midnight Hammer’ on June 22 this year, when United States Air Force GBU-57 finished off what the Israel Defence Forces had begun, was long and tortuous.
Over the last two years Israel has demolished the military capability of Hamas, forcing them to capitulate at the conference table; Hezbollah has been emasculated as a force in Lebanon, to a degree that the Lebanese - after decades of Hezbollah’s mafia like terror - are reclaiming their country.
Assad, Syria’s latest tyrant, is gone; Israel’s Iron Dome has obliterated missile threats, ranging from ballistic missiles down to mortar bombs, making a mockery of the Russian and North Korean arms industries; the Houthis have raged like spoilt children, only to have their leadership destroyed and their hold on Yemen much further diminished.
Finally, after the start of two weeks of war between Iran and Israel, which culminated on June 22, the Iranian military and IRGC Al Quds Forces, were first embarrassed, then attrited, then destroyed.
This happened along with the elimination of their command and control structure, their nuclear scientists and much of the central leadership.
The head and the heart of the snake had both been dealt a severe, if not yet terminal, blow.
The joke amongst Middle East observers was that when what was left of the IRGC leadership met, the only questions the few ayatollahs and generals left around the table had was who, or whom, where the Mossad agents [providing of course the person thinking the question wasn’t one already].
With the Iranian nuclear programme buried under 400 feet of rubble, IRGC neutered, Hezbollah and Hamas crushed, Israel, with the help of the US president, has achieved the near impossible.
Deterrence has been restored, the relationship with the GCC and the Saudis was back on track, Putin, his allies and his arms industry had been humiliated, and all that was left was to stage manage the end of Hamas in Gaza and the return of the hostages.
This is not to ignore the enormous amount of human and economic suffering and loss on all sides. The barbarity and evil of October 7 that that will forever be a lasting stain on the Palestinians and the massive use of military power by Israel that some will consider indiscriminate are two areas in point.
Equally, the turbocharging on antisemitism and antisemitic tropes in the West serves no one well, least of all the people in the Middle East; though Putin’s ‘info ops’ teams are probably on a considerable bonus for the amount of agitprop propaganda they’ve achieved.
With all of Israel’s and, if we are really honest with ourselves, our own war aims and objectives met, it is now time for ‘peace’ to break out.
The hypocrites and ‘peacemakers’ such as Starmer and Macron can now stand in the shade in Egypt, whilst behind the scenes quietly acknowledging that the immense sacrifice of Israel and its people has achieved something that they never could – the real opportunity for a lasting peace in the Middle East.
l Steve Aiken OBE MLA holds a PhD from University of Cambridge in International Relations and was a nuclear submarine commander. He spent much of his military service in the Middle East