Unionists should heed Napoleon's advice, and wear a velvet glove over an iron fist

That it is only a matter of time before a Secretary of State is forced to call a border poll and that changing demographics mean that a referendum will be won by those who want a so-called United Ireland. Unionism is seen to be just holding back the tide and is deepening its siege mentality.

There is nothing inevitable about ending Northern Ireland and its place within the United Kingdom. The facts are on the side of the Union and the unionist argument is strong but just not being effectively made. That was why two years ago we set up Uniting UK, to help provide a civic unionist, non-party political case for the Union. Our analysis is that political unionism is too focused on short-term tactics to make a strategic pro-Union case.

Uniting UK believes that reaching out beyond the traditional unionist support base is the only strategy capable of securing the Union in the long term. Why? Because demographics are changing within Northern Ireland as are voting patterns. Political unionism at 41% of the vote is now a minority and a further 20% of the population are potentially persuadable either way on the constitutional question. That means the Union must be sold if it is to be maintained.

It was Napoleon Bonaparte who coined the phrase, “put your iron hand in a velvet glove.” Today, in political terms, this means widening your appeal by building trust and rapport with your target audience while still maintaining your core principals and goals. Unionism needs to develop this approach if it is to have any chance of maintaining a level of support for the Union that will not only easily win a border poll but will avoid the need for a referendum altogether.

Recent years have seen many within political unionism adopt a hardline approach, more of an ‘iron hand in an iron glove’. Uncompromising on the Union but with a ‘no one likes us, we don’t care’ approach to reaching out to new audiences. This inability to appeal outside a hardcore base is a self-defeating strategy. Research into the attitudes and opinions of younger voters reinforces the need for a new approach. The hardliners fail to see the difficulty of having a policy of circling the wagons when you are running out of wagons!

Uniting UK believe that the iron hand/velvet glove strategy must be adopted if unionism is to secure its long-term future. The recent census showed that betting the Union on a traditional protestant demographic is a one-way ticket to a border poll.

So, what does that strategy look like in reality?

Firstly, Northern Ireland needs to be made to work for everyone here and that means making Stormont a success. While this may seem a pipedream with the latest collapse of the Executive, the long-term failure of devolution will not bring a better alternative for unionism. While the electorate may not expect greatly improved performance from the Assembly evidence does show that support for the status quo increases when devolution is functioning.

As the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement approaches, unionism rather than relishing its demise, needs the Agreement to work. It is the only show in town and we would be foolish to start unpicking its key tenets at this stage. Instead of seeing the Agreement as a ‘slippery slope’, those who want Northern Ireland to endure and prosper should embrace its structures as they will provide the scaffolding to maintain the Union. It is the only mechanism to deliver long term peace and political stability on this island.

Like the Agreement, promoting the Union is not limited to within Northern Ireland. Our place within the United Kingdom needs sold to audiences across Great Britain and the synergy brought by the four component parts of the Union understood. Unionism has traditionally been insular and struggled to effectively engage nationally and internationally. That must change or the argument will be lost by default.

Unionism must re-engage with the tens of thousands of voters who have moved to Alliance post Brexit to ensure they continue to support our existing constitutional arrangements. In addition, as the latest census showed, a sizeable portion of the nationalist community is content with being Northern Irish and needs to be reassured that their culture is respected, their aspiration to engage at an all-island level facilitated and that their economic and social ambition for their families can be secured within the Union.

Equally importantly, unionism’s traditional support needs to be given confidence that the Union is here for the long term. For too long elements of political unionism have used fear and uncertainty to drive out the vote. A debate is needed within the unionist community to show that there is a positive alternative available that has a greater chance of long term success than the tactics which are currently being offered.

The Union will only endure if a broad coalition of voters see it as the best way forward. As Peter Robinson once said, it is time to seek converts rather than be continuously looking for Lundys. At Uniting UK we seek to win those converts for the Union and to help sell our continued place within the UK.

It is time for those who value the Union and want to see Northern Ireland work for the long term to think strategically, to put on the velvet glove, and to remember that reaching out to others does not weaken the iron hand of your fundamental principle of remaining within the Union.

Philip Smith

Co-founder, Uniting UK

Uniting UK is a pro-Union campaign group founded in 2020 to articulate a positive and inclusive vision for our Union.