Editorial: A January election would let the government get more policies in place before a Labour administration

The deputy prime minister has said that this is “almost certainly is an election year”.

Oliver Dowden’s phrasing is being interpreted as a hint that a January 2025 general election has not been ruled out. The last date on which a poll can be held is January 28, although the conventional wisdom is that that is highly unlikely because it would involve campaigning around Christmas. It is also a grim time of year, dark and cold, in which to ask voters to go to polling stations.

Rishi Sunak has said that he does not plan to hold an election on May 2, as had been the source of speculation, but it remains possible he will call one suddenly in June. But pundits still expect the election to be held in October or November, chiming with Mr Sunak’s comment that he is aiming for the second half of the year.

Mr Dowden’s comment will do little to dissuade such assumptions, but even so there is a lot to be said for a January election. The main reason, in fact, is the atrocious polling data for the Tories. It will be very hard indeed to recover from that, and so they are highly likely to end up in oppsition.

No party since World War Two has won an election after 14 years in power, so the odds were already heavily against the Conservatives.

Any leader who feels strongly about conservative values could justify staying in power as long as​​​​​​ possible to introduce policies Labour might not overturn. For example, last week this column urged the government to get flights out to Rwanda to make clear that ministers make policy, not courts, and to dare Labour to be seen to oppose a flagship measure in the efforts of the UK to get a symbolic grip on its borders.

In other policy areas, including Northern Ireland, where London is belatedly using national levels to combat the impact of nationalist friendly devolution, having the government in place for another 10 months is time that could be used to