Editorial: ​Choppy waters for unionists before an expected Labour election win

A new poll shows that, if a general election is held in the next six months, the public strongly expects Labour to win.

Fifty-six per cent of respondents said Keir Starmer would be PM in that scenario, while 25% predicted another Conservative government.

After Boris Johnson’s chaotic departure and Liz Truss’s brief spell at Number 10, Rishi Sunak was credited with steadying the Tories. The prime minister’s style is less unpredictable than that of his predecessors, but his government has been buffeted by controversies like the Rwanda Bill.

Sunak has struggled to persuade voters that he stands for something distinctive and the Conservatives have frittered away the preconception that they are more reliable and competent than their rivals.

It is this Tory malaise, rather than enthusiasm for Labour, that has fed expectations of a change in government.

A Starmer administration is a much less alarming prospect than one led by Jeremy Corbyn, but the electorate is still unsure what it will be getting from Labour. In Northern Ireland, we are equally uncertain about what it might mean.

Traditionally, Conservative governments are expected to be more amenable to unionism, but things often do not work out that way. Yesterday, the secretary of state said that he had halted negotiations over bringing back Stormont before critical issues with the Irish Sea border were resolved.

The Tories have let unionists down repeatedly, but it is difficult to gauge whether Starmer’s Labour will be a more dependable custodian for the Union.

National politics remains in a volatile place, with the governing party weak and divided. It is likely to be a tempestuous new year and our parties must be astute to navigate this period to unionism’s benefit.