Editorial: Council results are no mandate for border poll

The depiction of the council election results by parts of the media is distorted.

There has been great excitement about the success of Sinn Fein as if it represents some sort of watershed. As this column conceded yesterday, nationalism has moved ahead of unionism in number of first preference votes, which is unprecedented and a moment of undoubted significance. There is for sure much for unionists to ponder.

At the same time however, the circumstances for calling a border poll are not even close to being met. In fact there is no more grounds for calling such a referendum on the constitutional future of Northern Ireland than in 1998, when provision for such a plebiscite was inserted into the Belfast Agreement.

Inevitably Sinn Fein is gearing up for such a vote and telling London and Dublin that they too need to prepare for such an event. The Belfast Agreement has a provision that says that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland shall call a border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland".

This was a truly remarkable concession by the UK. It says that if 50% plus one in a Northern Ireland poll vote to leave the nation, it can do so. It says the same about Scotland. Spain certainly does not say that about its territory, nor does France. America does not even have a provision in its constitution for a state to leave. These great countries all say that it is a mater for the entire nation, not just the local area that might want to secede.

The only power the UK has to stop an exit is to deny a poll. That is must do if the conditions are not present, as they plainly are not. The nationalist vote has not risen in 25 years.