Editorial: Every unionist vote matters, in all seats - because higher turnout reinforces support for staying in UK

In the old election day cliche, every vote counts. But for unionism in Northern Ireland, in today’s general election, it really does.

More than a few observers of political life here are inclined to cite gleefully the apparent unionist decline. Unionism’s critics are watching – and counting. When Sinn Fein got the most seats in the 2022 Stormont election, it was oft cited in the media but the inconvenient fact that unionists got more votes was not. Then when nationalists outpolled unionists in council elections last year suddenly the vote total was the story.

The three-way split in unionism is unfortunate, but we are stuck with it for now. And it does mean that unionists of all shades have a large range of candidates to vote for in many of the constituencies. The three main unionist parties all have outstanding candidates standing for MP today, including the two leaders who are in the fray, the DUP’s Gavin Robinson and the TUV’s Jim Allister, and Colonel Tim Collins of the UUP.

The admirable Ulster Unionist Diana Armstrong in Fermanagh can see off Pat Cullen, the former nursing leader who now won’t answer our question on whether the murder of nurses at Enniskillen by the IRA was wrong, but she can only do so if all unionists in that constituency turn out. Likewise, the impressive Phillip Brett of the DUP can reclaim North Belfast from Sinn Fein but only with full unionist support. In seats where the outcome is not in doubt, unionists often face a rich and varied choice.

Unionist morale has been poor, and no wonder. There is an Irish Sea border. There is a first minister who justifies past IRA violence. There is a cultural battle of attrition. The history of the Troubles is distorted so that it is the security forces, not the terrorists, who face most interrogation.

But unionism has not declined to anything like the extent that the ‘new Ireland’ brigade would want it to have done. Polling still shows strong support for staying in the UK. The unionist vote decline is at least in part due to lower turnout in some unionist areas that can be reversed today.

It is easy to assume that a unionist vote in a constituency where there is no prospect of a unionist victory does not matter. But that is wrong.

In fact, it might well be that in such seats, where there are three unionist candidates, voters feel more able to express their actual preference, free of tactical considerations. And their votes will then be added to the tally, and will help to be a counterweight against the inevitable calls to grant Sinn Fein their obsession: a border poll.

SF’s rise is not inevitable, as both the 2019 general election showed and this year’s council and MEP elections in the Republic. But if they can crow about their vote total compared to unionists, it is easier for them.

In Westminster, a big Labour majority will pose its problems, not only in terms of a governing programme that swathes of the electorate will oppose, but for Labour. The party might find itself fighting a battle between its purists and pragmatists, with the former thinking that issues such as spiralling debt and soaring immigration are no problem and the latter realising that it could lead to a short spell in power.

But again, the fact of a probable Labour victory cannot be a reason not to vote. Northern Ireland needs the best representation we can muster at Westminster, making the case for NI’s place in the Union.

Hilary Benn, the likely Northern Ireland secretary, was one of the first London-based politicians to say that the NI Protocol was not working – he has been a europhile, yet he was recoiling from Brussels intransigence. NI MPs will need to be lobbying Mr Starmer and Mr Benn, if indeed they take power, on issues such as the clamour for the terms of a border poll to be ‘clarified’ – a bid to put the UK in a straitjacket.

Global events show we are lucky to have a vote. Much of the world such as China and Russia have either no vote, or no meaningful one.