EU will be thrilled if UK is giving up on suspending Northern Ireland Protocol

For a while last year, the European Union seemed rattled by the tougher UK approach to the disastrous Northern Ireland Protocol that Boris Johnson agreed in 2019 with Leo Varadkar.

London had denied there was any internal UK trade border in the Irish Sea, but when that frontier actually came into being, ministers seemed to accept not only its reality but also its disastrous constitutional implications.

After all, the UK government was arguing itself in court that the Act of Union was partially and impliedly repealed (in response to a court challenge). The latest stage in that court case will be decided today, when the Northern Ireland Court of Appeal led by Mrs Justice Keegan issues a ruling on the earlier finding by Mr Justice Colton, who upheld the protocol (the case, incidentally, is an inspiring example of unionists working together, including Jim Allister QC, who has been vindicated in his unwavering contempt for the protocol from the moment of its announcement, and the DUP, UUP and others including Ben Habib, the former Brexit Party MEP).

Brussels reacted to the new UK demands on the Irish Sea border by agreeing to forgo or streamline some checks but it did nothing to diminish the constitutional damage of the protocol. But now there is almost no chance of EU concessions.

The UK seemed set to trigger Article 16 to suspend the protocol until November, when for some reason its rhetoric softened. Now, while Boris Johnson is still calling for “significant changes” to the border, his foreign secretary Liz Truss is reported to instead feel that measures to boost trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, such as breaks, are better than Article 16, given the Ukraine crisis.

This foolishness comes when the UK has been vindicated in its robust approach to Ukraine, including assisting with arms, and the EU has shown itself to be naive, such as Germany allowing itself to be at the mercy of Russia for its energy.

It the thinking in London is as reported, then the EU will be thrilled that its landgrab of NI is going to be tolerated.