Government wins a crucial vote but shape of Brexit is still unclear

The DUP’s role in the government defeating the ‘meaningful vote’ amendment was clear.

Had the party’s 10 MPs voted the other way, the result would have been 309 to the government and 313 for its opponents.

That would have put the UK in a disastrous position: unable to proceed with confidence in its negotiations, aware that pro Remain MPs could in effect dictate its strategy and not only paralyse decision making, but push the final outcome in the way that the European Union wants.

This would then mean that the UK was in such a hopeless post Brexit situation, having to take all the regulations and abide by a single trade policy, but without any say, that soon enough a campaign would re-emerge for the UK to join the EU.

In those circumstances, a campaign would also emerge for a clean Brexit, plunging the nation into years if not decades of turbulence and uncertainty.

But while obvious disaster has been averted, the government’s situation is by no means good. It is unclear what the assurance to let the Speaker John Bercow rule on a future ‘meaningful vote’ actually means in practice.

It is also unclear whether the government can in Trade Bill votes get the UK out of the customs union, which is a far more important exit than from the single market.

However, ministers are getting closer to getting Brexit over the line. And while London has been weak on the Irish border, it has not yet tied down the matter in the way that Dublin wants. A number of Irish deadlines have so far come and gone.

Yesterday was one of the most important votes in modern British history but it was far from a decisive one.

A number of things could yet happen that cause Theresa May to fall as prime minister, which would lead to a fresh wave of political chaos.