Individual behaviour is still key to helping contain coronavirus

In the UK, there have now been 10 deaths.

In Scotland the number of cases has doubled to 60. The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, recommends no gatherings of more than 500 people.

The Who rock band is postponing its UK and Ireland tour.

America has closed flights from Europe’s Schengen free-travel zone. The White House St Patrick’s Day reception is off.

In the Republic of Ireland, schools and colleges will close for two weeks. Stormont is not following suit but its Health Minister Robin Swann says if the outbreak worsens, normal business in health care “will not be possible”. NI’s chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride has said that the elderly and people with underlying conditions are “significantly at risk”.

It is only fair to the governments to recognise that they face a massive dilemma. Even a decision such as closing a school has huge implications for parents, and their ability to go to work, let alone the cost of wider closures in society.

China’s response suggests that radical actions can help contain coronavirus, yet the UK experts standing alongside Boris Johnson yesterday made a compelling case as to why isolating too early is risky — people get frustrated and begin to ignore the advice when it peaks, months from now.

If ministers over-react the cost to the economy will be immense. Even in Italy the number of formal diagnoses is small at 12,000 cases. If 30% of the country got it (which is the lower end of the worst predictions) that would be 18 million people.

The smallish numbers of infections relative to the overall population seem to be because it hasn’t peaked. Yet if over-reacting is a problem, complacency could be even worse.

In the meantime, it is us all as individuals who can do the most. Washing hands relentlessly of course, but thinking about when we go out and whether we really need to do so. Also being very cautious around vulnerable groups. Helping such people, by delivering food for example, but keeping some physical distance, above all for their sake.