It is too early to draw comparisons on cross-border virus outcomes

“I would urge everyone to avoid speculation or rushing to judgement, comparing our statistics and our actions, favourably or otherwise, with other countries.”

It was, the health minister told MLAs, likely that the whole world would probably be battling coronavirus into 2021, so it was “premature at best” to issue “final verdicts”.

These were wise words, because there have been indecently premature damning verdicts about the UK data (few people are inclined to damn the Republic, and rightly not).

It is fair to observe that death tolls per capita in the Republic are currently half that in the UK, but tolls in France, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Italy are all higher. It seems that the German outcome is best. But it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about why, for example, the state of New York is so much worse than California, or why tolls in Scotland are much lower than in England

When this newspaper reported last week Stormont library findings that death rates in Northern Ireland seemed slightly lower than the Republic, we deliberately did not make a big play of it. Now, when deaths from care homes are added, the NI rate seems slightly higher than south of the border but it will be years before any final analysis.

Meanwhile we should continue to behave responsibly and, if we get evidence that deaths are not as bad as feared, be thankful for it and discuss how to ease lockdown.