It will be bad day for Northern Ireland if the last small gaps between the European Union and United Kingdom are not bridged

Kremlinology is the study of what is going on the Kremlin, the heart of government in Moscow.

There is always some mystery and speculation as to what is going on in the Russian capital, due to the secretive ways power is exercised there.

There should be a study called Brexitology, as to what is actually going on in negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

There have been predictions of a ‘no deal’ UK exit since Britain voted to quit the EU in June 2016, particularly as the 2019 date for departure loomed. That was the deadline for an agreement to leave the EU, which was finally agreed at the end of last year. Drama was usually averted by UK climbdown.

This latest deadline relates to the future relationship between UK and EU from next year, when the transition period ends (until which the UK is in effect in the EU).

It is not clear, even among expert observers, if the talks are in deep trouble, as both sides claim, or whether both are talking tough ahead of a last minute compromise.

It is said that a deal is 97% agreed but that the last issues including fishing and state aid are proving hard to surmount.

Yet it was also said that the Irish border was intractable, and this was resolved last week largely in favour of the Republic of Ireland’s long-standing demands.

It would be tempting to observe that Dublin has made such a display of its utter loyalty to EU rigidity against the UK that it almost deserves no deal, which will hit the Republic of Ireland badly. But it is a temptation that should be avoided. No deal is very bad indeed for these islands.

The NI protocol kicks in whether or not there is a deal and without one the Irish Sea border is all the harder. Nationalists and pro EU voices in NI will be furious at no deal, and when that happens London trembles and concessions flow.

Some businesses in Northern Ireland will face turmoil.

The UK has to reclaim sovereignty for Brexit to make sense. The EU has to protect its single market it is to survive.

But it will be a tragedy, and a bad day for NI’s place in the Union, if they cannot bridge the last gaps between them.

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