Letter: Border poll will not be focus with the world about to change utterly

I was impressed by UUP leader Jon Burrows' well-argued piece about the future of the Union (Unionism must think smarter and build something stronger for the long term”, September 5 – to read the article, click here)

One of the many strengths of his approach was that he did not mention border polls. It may seem odd, therefore, that I raise the matter of a border poll now, but I do so only to confidently dismiss it. The issue, however, may prove to be complex in the long term, and in quite surprising and arresting ways.

But, let us look at the short to medium term initially, say the next five years and perhaps a little longer. There will be no clear majority for such a referendum, although vigilance is essential. Furthermore, Andy Burnham has recently said, quite definitively, that it is "off the table". He knows how divisive these things are. There will be no second Scottish referendum either. The prime minister deserves credit for this common sense approach.

The secretary of state, Sir Chris Bryant, who has sometimes been prematurely criticised by unionists, represents a Welsh constituency at Westminster. He will be witnessing nationalism diverting debate away from bread-and-butter issues in his own constituency. He will not want to release the wrecking ball of a border poll on NI, which is making such solid progress, and has such obvious potential, without one. He will certainly not want to set any precedents for Wales.

But the long-term future is where it gets even more interesting, and in a positive way for unionists. Wherever we are in the UK, we are fortunate to benefit from its inherent strengths, but, like other countries, we are also beset by traditional problems – the cost of living, health care, immigration concerns.

These challenges may persist into the long run. But they will likely be overshadowed by far greater disruptions, including massive social and economic dislocation – as well as opportunities – caused by Artificial Intelligence, geo-political and military threats and instability from Russia, China and elsewhere, and climate change chaos at home and abroad.

In the long term the focus of political life will change, and in an ever more unstable world the benefits of the Union will become even clearer. Frankly, I do not think that we will be able to fit a border poll into our busy and sometimes challenging agenda in the next 10 or 20 years, or indeed ever. We will be too preoccupied dealing with more pressing matters, some of them astonishingly alarming, some potentially very positive and transformative.

Part of that process will involve cooperating more closely, across all areas, with the EU. This, of course, includes the Republic. But it will need to move on from old-fashioned nationalism – it is essentially regressive and sits poorly in a world that is about to change utterly. Utterly is the word, and it is far more appropriate now than when Yeats used it in different circumstances a century ago. AI-led technological change will shortly astonish us.

Our focus should be on addressing the massive issues of the mid-21st century, within the current constitutional settlement, not revisiting the 19th.

John Gemmell, Wem, Shropshire