Letter: UUP should make an opposition pledge ahead of elections
A letter from Edward Ferrin:
The recent comments by Mike Nesbitt on his own future as leader of the UUP should serve as a reminder to his party that they must map out the future direction of the party ahead of the 2027 elections. One criticism that has often been levelled at the UUP has been the idea that the party is often like a sail in the wind – directionless and a party that is in the middle of its own identity crisis. For a party that continues to claim somewhat liberal views on the future direction of unionism, it is hard to overlook Doug Beattie’s resignation as leader last year as anything but to claim otherwise.
The party leadership has often viewed the ‘broad church’ of the party as a badge of honour rather than a fundamental problem facing the party – a battle between the conservative and liberal factions and between the devolutionist and integrationist factions. The time for a showdown between both sections of the party has long been overdue – the UUP cannot continue jumping between leaders in the hope that someone can unite both views of the future within the party.
The UUP has a huge challenge on its hands in the 2027 Assembly elections – it faces a challenge from the DUP, TUV and Alliance. How can it maintain its 9 seats and gain ground to add new MLAs to its team? The party must clearly set out its electoral strategy around a devolutionist vision for unionism, promise to enter opposition if it fails to hold the ‘balance of power’ and set out clear social and economic policies to make Northern Ireland more united and more prosperous. A devolutionist vision for unionism, espoused by the UUP, would counter the anti-Stormont sentiment from TUV and some sections of the DUP.
The UUP can only win back support from Alliance if it can appeal middle ground unionism who overwhelmingly support devolution over integration. The party has a small window of opportunity to do this if it promises to enter opposition after the next election, if it fails to hold the ‘balance of power’ within the Assembly. The UUP can only succeed if it removes the chains of being a small party in an Executive dominated by Sinn Féin and the DUP – a pledge to enter opposition in such circumstances would place Alliance on the back foot throughout the campaign.
The party has the potential to win seats at the next Assembly election if it runs a tighter vote management strategy. It will not defeat the DUP and TUV in a head-to-head based on current polling but could win some key target seats in constituencies where the party has the potential to grow – South Antrim, East Antrim and Lagan Valley are the only constituencies where a second UUP candidate could succeed in the election (based on last year's Westminster results). Poor voter management and running too many candidates to match the DUP has often led to defeats for incumbent UUP MLAs and too much mixed messaging on the ground as to who you should vote for as your first and second preference.
The party must challenge the DUP record in the Executive and TUV’s integrationist stance if it is to make any ground with rightward unionist voters. That battle will only be won if the party has clear social and economic policies to build a stronger, more united Northern Ireland that is comfortable within the United Kingdom. The UUP’s longstanding commitment to lower corporation tax to boost FDI, gradual devolution of fiscal powers and stronger local government are all key planks of party policy which set out a different vision to that currently delivered by the Executive.
If Mike Nesbitt is to stand aside for a new leader of the UUP, there is only a short period of time for the new leader to build a strong party brand before the 2027 elections. Delivering a pro-devolution platform, conserving its party’s baseline of support and breaking new ground with floating voters are three key challenges that lie ahead. The question remains: does the UUP have the resolve to do it?
Edward Ferrin, Belfast BT14