Paul McElhinney: Dilemma of Sinn Fein’s differing challenges north and south might be insurmountable

Developments there have an uncanny way of impacting on things on this side of the Atlantic, it should be noted.

In the south’s local and European elections in May, the big story was the collapse of the Sinn Fein vote and the solidity of the vote for the two main government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Neither pundit, partisan nor neutral saw that coming. Polls and predictions don’t always get it right.

Importantly, a large number of independents were elected in both the European and local elections, thought to be the destination of many disaffected Sinn Fein voters.

For roughly the last year to 18 months, political analysts had been pointing almost to the inevitability of a Sinn Fein-led government in the south at the next election.

Falling poll numbers for FF and FG over a sustained period on the back of poor progress in the critical areas of housing, health, immigration and the cost of living suggested a likely rejection of the current government at the next general election.

When the votes were finally counted in the May elections, the reality was the opposite of that expected. Voters appeared to baulk at the fear of the unknown (or maybe too by the ‘known’) presented by Sinn Fein.

Instead, they sought comfort in the bosom of the familiar and traditional parties of government. Quite a slap in the face for Sinn Fein and the ‘new look’ Mary Lou McDonald message.

Many put their failure down to complacent campaigning, running too many candidates and unclear communication of their actual policy positions.

Confusion also between their egalitarian aspirations and the more hardline, anti-immigrant stance of many of its voters did the party’s profile little good.

The voice of independent candidates and the traditional main parties also ate into their vote.

Sinn Féin’s performance in the UK General Election in early July stands in stark contrast to its poor outturn in the southern elections.

They managed to secure the largest number of seats (seven) of any of the parties. This was magnified by the fact of unionist disunity which led to seats that might have gone to the DUP going to Alliance, the TUV and UUP.

This contrast in Sinn Fein performance north and south of the border must be of concern to senior members of the leadership of that party, particularly given its avowed ‘all-Ireland’ strategic approach.

Many factors can explain this split performance, but its stark clarity is a real headache for Sinn Fein long-term strategists. A clear halt has been put to its all-Ireland strategies and ambitions.

Much re-setting is on the cards, although McDonald’s own position looks secure, at least for the moment.

Talk in the south is increasingly centring around an autumn election, partly aimed at unsettling Sinn Fein efforts at party re-building.

It is generally felt that an early election will help the re-election of the current government and stifle Sinn Féin’s prospects.

The south has a new leader in Simon Harris, seen as more pragmatic on Northern Ireland and Anglo-Irish relations than his predecessor, Leo Varadkar.

Meetings with the Northern Ireland Executive leaders, Michelle O’Neill and Emma Little-Pengelly, have been friendly and constructive. The auguries for future relations are good.

Positive beginnings in the new Anglo-Irish relationship between Starmer and Harris may also blunt the impact of any appeals to the electorate of Sinn Fein’s particular brand of pan-Ireland ambition.

Interestingly, talk of border polls has not been a priority for either leader. Starmer appears to be adopting am ‘honest broker’ role in relation to Northern Ireland affairs and Harris has been at pains to cast a benign light northwards.

Overall, this year’s elections have shown, amongst other things, that Sinn Féin’s challenges differ considerably in kind and in intensity in Northern Ireland compared with the south. This dilemma might be insurmountable.

Either way, it will cause much agonising for a party which would prefer to see both parts of Ireland as seamless and undifferentiated.

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Paul McElhinney is a journalist and writer living in Wexford. He is the author of a biography of Air Marshal Sir George Beamish, ‘Lion of the RAF’, and has written articles for many Irish and international journals. His main interests centre around history, politics, culture and sport. He worked in the Department of the Taoiseach throughout the 1980s and subsequently as an oil and gas executive for British Gas PLC in London and Washington. He has also lectured in economic and social studies and is currently researching for two books, one with a Northern Ireland theme.