Michael Gove is right to rule out a new Scottish vote but UK should prepare for one even so

Mr Portillo’s opinion is important not merely because he has become an independently minded, often moderate, critic of his former Tory colleagues, but because he is partly Spanish (he speaks the language fluently, and his father was a left wing academic who was born in central Spain).

Spain does not allow regions such as Catalonia to split, regardless of opinion within the region. Spain says, rightly, that it is a matter for the whole nation, not just the region.

Only the United Kingdom has been foolish enough to say that a 50% plus one vote for independence vote in Scotland is enough to shatter the nation. Only the UK agreed to Northern Ireland holding a border poll if opinion surveys show enough support for a united Ireland.

Note that the Belfast Agreement then says that a border poll cannot be held more often than every seven years. This will in effect mean a border poll is held every seven years after an initial one, unless the initial result is an overwhelming one to stay in the UK.

Seven years is not a long time — senators in the US are elected every six years, and Republic of Ireland presidents every seven. Such repeated plebiscites would permanently de-stabilise Northern Ireland, and suit republicans, who want to say it is a failed state.

It is this context of the UK making massive concessions over its sovereign territory, to suit the wishes of separatists, that makes Michael Gove’s latest comments on another Scottish vote so important. As he points out, the Scottish Nationalist Party said the 2014 referendum was once in a generation.

But while Mr Gove is right to rule out another one, and while there is not enough support for a united Ireland to justify a border poll in Northern Ireland, it is important to be prepared for both. A Labour government could come in as soon as 2024, based on SNP support, and inclined to allow referendums.

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