Owen Polley: This really is a historic election - and NI needs to return pro Union MPs

​As every general election draws closer, the parties try to persuade us that it will be a defining contest for the UK’s future.
Stephen Farry speaking behind a row of DUP MPs in the House of Commons last year. Mr Farry recently warned ‘progressive’ voters in North Down about the ‘threat’ of a unionist candidate winning. But by far the biggest symbol of sectarian hatred in NI politics is a party that justifies IRA murderStephen Farry speaking behind a row of DUP MPs in the House of Commons last year. Mr Farry recently warned ‘progressive’ voters in North Down about the ‘threat’ of a unionist candidate winning. But by far the biggest symbol of sectarian hatred in NI politics is a party that justifies IRA murder
Stephen Farry speaking behind a row of DUP MPs in the House of Commons last year. Mr Farry recently warned ‘progressive’ voters in North Down about the ‘threat’ of a unionist candidate winning. But by far the biggest symbol of sectarian hatred in NI politics is a party that justifies IRA murder

This year, though, it really does feel like we’re on the brink of a historic vote.

By Friday, Labour will almost certainly have a large majority in the House of Commons after 14 years of Conservative prime ministers. That means enormous uncertainty over the government’s approach to the economy, taxation and immigration.

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There will be questions too about the resilience of Britain’s two-party system. For decades, only the Conservatives and Labour had a realistic chance of taking power, but many commentators suggest that a major shake-up could follow a humiliating Tory defeat.

That will depend upon the size of the majority that we wake up to later this week.

In 1906, the Liberals won a landslide that left the Conservatives and Unionists with only 156 MPs. Some pollsters think that the Tory result this time could be even worse. In one or two surveys, it even looked possible that the Lib Dems could win the second largest number of MPs, with Sir Ed Davey becoming leader of the Opposition.

The Conservatives will at least have to rethink what their party stands for after polling day. The last few years have been marked by infighting between various Tory factions, each of which claims to speak for authentic conservatism.

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These discussions will be complicated by the resurgence of the populist right.

In 2017 and 2019, UKIP’s vote dwindled almost to nothing. This time, Nigel Farage is back as the leader of Reform UK and its popularity explains, mathematically at least, why the Tories are so uncompetitive.

If the Conservative Party is to rebuild successfully, and challenge Labour in five years time, it will have to see off that challenge and persuade core supporters that it can again be trusted with their votes.

With all that at stake, Rishi Sunak’s campaign has at times verged on farcical. He announced the election in a downpour, unaccountably decided to leave the D-Day commemoration early and now his party is embroiled in an unseemly betting scandal.

Things could scarcely have gone worse.

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At the same time, Sir Keir Starmer is set to win a resounding majority, but he’s become a figure of fun before even reaching Number 10. He was visibly annoyed, during a television debate, when the audience laughed at his well-worn claim to be the son of a ‘tool-maker’.

The Conservatives and Labour, at least, have been fighting wholeheartedly, with accusations and counter-accusations whizzing about.

In comparison, the local campaign has been lacklustre. That’s surprising, with so many important issues to resolve and so many seats finely balanced between two or more parties.

Perhaps the DUP and Sinn Fein think that a quiet election might allow them to skate over their difficulties, in a way that avoids attracting the attention of the electorate. People will just go to the ballot box and do what they usually do.

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In the run-up to the poll announcement, the Donaldson arrest shocked the DUP and the party continues to struggle to explain its position on the Irish Sea border.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein suffered humiliating election defeats in the Republic of Ireland just weeks ago. It hopes that these failures do not become contagious, but, even if the party avoids a dip, the abiding differences between northern nationalists and their southern Irish counterparts will be underlined.

The Alliance Party’s candidate, Stephen Farry, nevertheless thought it wise recently to warn ‘progressive’ voters in North Down about the ‘threat’ of a unionist candidate winning. I believe that the coded message is that nationalist voters, including Sinn Feiners, must support him, because unionists are so unspeakably extreme and bigoted.

Unfortunately, unionists are used to being treated with that kind of contempt by a party that casts itself as ‘middle ground’. It was still shocking to hear this language, though, from a candidate in an area that is considered solidly unionist. He clearly does not expect it to alienate his supporters, even if they previously backed pro-Union politicians.

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The truth is that, despite Farry’s statements, the biggest symbol of sectarian hatred in Northern Irish politics, by far, is the continued success of a party that justifies the IRA trying to murder its neighbours into an all-Ireland state.

The latest example of that mindset was betrayed recently by Pat Cullen, Sinn Fein’s candidate in Fermanagh South Tyrone. The former nursing union chief repeatedly refused to condemn the Enniskillen bombing that took place in her constituency.

Cullen’s comments may galvanise some moderate voters, who previously considered staying at home, or supporting a marginal candidate. Equally, polls suggest that a growing number of nationalists believe that the IRA’s violence was necessary, so her nauseating views may not lose the seat.

The furore was at least a timely reminder that, despite the low key campaign, this general election is crucially important for Northern Ireland. In the past few years, Pro-Union voters have been routinely mocked and maligned, while apologists for terror were scarcely challenged. Meanwhile, an informal coalition of Irish separatists and anti-Brexit liberals worked surreptitiously to loosen our links with the rest of Britain.

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This election does not offer easy solutions to those problems. Ultimately, unionists in previous parliaments failed to persuade the Tories to repair our place in the Union, and it’s unlikely that a Labour government will be easier to convince.

At the very least, though, we must get out and vote, to make sure that our voices are not silenced. And to give articulate, pro-Union MPs the best chance of representing our interests at Westminster.​

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