The DUP must not be panicked into a bad deal

Most unionists agree it has been a disaster for unionism. This is partly because recent elections had led many people into a false sense that nationalism was weakened. We found out that was clearly not so on Friday.

In fact the results are not that different in terms of electoral breakdown to the results in 2007, in which Sinn Fein polled well, and the SDLP actually outpolled the Ulster Unionists.

That year, however, the seat differential between unionism and nationalism was much larger proportionate to the vote differential. Part of the reason for this year’s narrower seat margin seems to be that a large number of UUP voters did indeed transfer to parties other than the DUP.

The DUP is right to say that Mike Nesbitt’s comments contributed to that pattern, but it is also likely that anger over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal was a factor. Indeed, the DUP could easily have suffered much more at the ballot box overall than it did, such was the scale of the RHI debacle.

It will take time, careful analysis and polling to find out exactly why people voted as they did last week. But within unionism the results will almost certainly have a galvanising effect. There will be demand for closer co-operation between unionists in the face of a resurgent Sinn Fein. Increasing closeness has been a long time coming. It is not plausible for unionism to be so splintered amid a gradually shrinking base.

In the meantime, one thing is clear. The DUP must not be panicked into a deal, and to conceding republican demands, particularly with regard to legacy.

Some people think Sinn Fein might want to deal directly with Theresa May. But even in the highly unlikely event that someone of the prime minister’s temperament would be willing to hasten along a process that facilitates a pro IRA narrative, she cannot be unaware – as English soldiers face trial – that there would be consequences for her if she did.