The New Ireland vision is not convincing waverers

There has been a big media focus on the Ireland’s Future event that took place in Dublin at the weekend.

While the organised described it as a multi-party discussion about the constitutional future of the Ireland, with delegates from all walks of public life, critics dismissed it as a rally for a united Ireland.

That was why the Alliance Party stayed away, for example.

As Peter Robinson, the former DUP leader and far-sighted ex first minister of Northern Ireland, has said, unionists must not be complacent about the push for an all Ireland.

It is distinctly possible that a border poll will come sooner rather than later, particularly given the current travails of the Conservative Party and the confused line coming from the Labour Party on such a plebiscite.

But while unionists should be prepared for a border poll, at the same time they should be emphasising that the criteria for holding one are not even close to being met.

It is true that the Protestant population is falling and that the unionist vote has been falling too. But this has been happening at a much slower pace than some triumphalist republicans like to say. Also, it is a fall in the unionist vote, rather than a fall in the pro Union vote.

In fact republicans must know that they are not making the progress that they need to make, either in terms of votes for parties that have a united Ireland as their core goal or in terms of having an Irish only identity in the Northern Ireland census.

The Ireland’s Future event did not get the traction its organisers hoped for.

It is telling that Leo Varadkar was heckled for suggesting compromise on the shape of an all Ireland.

Ireland itself has shown in polls that its public will not endorse such modest steps as joining the Commonwealth or changing their national anthem to accommodate unionists. No wonder the New Ireland vision is not convincing waverers.