Advocates for older people in Northern Ireland warn of impact Burnham plans to break state pension triple lock

Northern Ireland's Commissioner for Older People, Siobhan Casey, issued the warning after Prime Minister Andy Burnham set out his plans for a new ‘National Care Service’.

He wants to end the current pensions triple lock, which guarantees increases in line with the highest of inflation, earnings or 2.5%. The savings would be used to create an NHS-style care service in England.

The state pension would rise in line with inflation or 2.5% from 2030, breaking the automatic link with increases in average earnings.

But officials insisted it will rise by more if needed.

Mr Burnham said: “This change will generate significant savings which we will use to build up our National Care Service.”

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ deputy director Jonathan Cribb said savings “are likely to be relatively small in the first few years, but rise substantially over time” and “we should not expect this reform to save enough that it could fund universal social care in the next parliament”. Officials expect the change to save £15 billion a year by 2040.

However, Siobhan Casey warned: "Some older people have occupational pensions, savings, investments or other assets. But others are living on the State Pension with very little else to fall back on.

"Our own evidence shows that, for the poorest 40% of pensioners in Northern Ireland, more than 90% of their income comes from public benefits. That tells us very clearly that there are older people for whom changes to the State Pension can have a profound impact on their financial security."

Around 26,000 pensioners in NI were living in relative poverty in 2024/25, she said, so it is critical those with least financial security are protected.

Age NI Chief Executive Linda Robinson welcomed the commitment to quality social care, which she said improves the lives of older people and prevents pressures within the health system.

She noted that the trade-off between removing the Triple Lock and increased spending in social care will only apply to England.

Therefore, she called on the NI Executive to make sure that any associated savings are "ringfenced for investing in social care" in NI.

“The Triple Lock has given older people confidence that the value of their State Pension would not be eroded.”

So she urged the NI Executive to prepare now by identifying adverse impacts on pensioners here and planning mitigating measures.

Advice NI spokesman Kevin Higgins said it was important to note the plan would only remove the link to average earnings – so the State Pension would continue to be up-rated by either CPI inflation or 2.5%.

There is scope for a debate on adequate income for pensioners and access to "effective care in their home", he said.

But he obviously has concerns about the impact on pensioners for whom the State Pension represents “the core” of their income. He suggests they could be helped with State Pension Credit, a means-tested top-up.

"We would also wish to see changes to tax thresholds to ensure tax liability does not begin to erode the value of pensions, where State Pension is the main source of income."