By-Elections: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak facing prospect of three Tory losses in crunch local polls in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty as well as Somerton and Frome

All eyes in Westminster will be on the by-elections in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty as well as Somerton and Frome on Thursday, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both hoping to inflict blows on the Tories.

It could be a drama-filled end to a parliamentary term not short on political theatrics, with the Uxbridge and Selby polls triggered amid the fall-out of Boris Johnson's furious reaction to the Privileges Committee investigation and the row over his resignation honours list.

The economic outlook is difficult too, with households still struggling with stubbornly high inflation and mortgage holders pitched into misery by rising interest rates.

Combined with NHS pressures and the impact of months of industrial unrest, it could be a difficult start to summer recess for Mr Sunak.

Pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward believes the UK has now “returned to normal mid-term politics”.

“What we're looking at is a series of by-elections where people will naturally express their anger about the current government.

“Boris Johnson, in a curious way, managed to defy mid-term in some cases, although not necessarily in by-elections.”

The Tory peer added: “People will express their view about government but – and this is where it becomes different – all the seats ... there is the burden of the events of the last 12 months.”

In Uxbridge, former PM Mr Johnson held the west London constituency since 2015, securing it with a 7,000 majority at the last general election in 2019.

His sudden exit came as a shock in both the constituency and in the Commons – but it has offered Labour a chance to snatch the seat from Mr Sunak's party.

Labour candidate and local councillor Danny Beales will be hoping to become the area's next MP.

But Conservative councillor Steve Tuckwell and the Tories are hoping that the Sadiq Khan-backed Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) scheme is enough to sway voters away from the opposition.

Lord Hayward said it will be the first time a local issue has dominated a campaign since the 1983 Bermondsey by-election, when Labour suffered huge losses to the Liberal Party.

The Selby and Ainsty contest, in the North Yorkshire Conservative heartland, may prove even more of a bellwether for Labour.

Outgoing MP Nigel Adams resigned after being denied a peerage in Mr Johnson's resignation honours list.

An MP for 13 years, Mr Adams had a 20,000 majority in 2019.

Barrister and district councillor Claire Holmes is fighting to keep the seat blue, but Labour strongly believes that Keir Mather, a 25-year-old Oxford graduate, is in with a chance.

Labour does have some history in the area, with Lord Hayward pointing out that the old Selby constituency – with different boundaries – had a Labour MP between 1997 and 2010.

The final by-election in Somerton and Frome is seen as offering a perfect opportunity for the Lib Dems to gain a seat, with some seeing victory there as a near certainty.

The poll was prompted by the resignation of David Warburton amid allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use. He had held the seat since 2015 when the Tories took it from the Lib Dems.