Coronavirus: NI now in peak of pandemic – but it may be less devastating than feared, says Robin Swann

The modelling, revealed publicly in a statement to the Assembly today from Health Minister Robin Swann, is the first major piece of good news which indicates that shutting down much of the economy and confining people largely to their homes is preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed, thus leading to a far higher death rate.

Mr Swann praised the public for the discipline of the “positive and responsible approach” adopted by the “vast majority” of people, but warned against complacency.

Today the Executive agreed – as expected – to continue the current restrictions for several more weeks.

The minister warned that although his department’s modelling indicates that we are now in the peak of the pandemic’s first wave, “it is too early to confirm whether the current figures represent the peak”.

Today’s daily figures – which at least partially reflect the picture several days ago, and do not include all Covid-19 deaths – showed that six more people have died with the condition, bringing the total number of hospital deaths to 140.

Emphasising that the modelling is not a prediction, Mr Swann said it indicated that the peak in Northern Ireland – which is significantly behind the peak in GB – “may now, potentially, be less severe than we had feared, in this first wave at least”.

The minister said that Northern Ireland now has 143 adult ICU beds, with a further 12 paediatric beds. Today there were 49 Covid patients in ICU, with a further 38 non-Covid patients.

He said: “Thankfully that means as it stands, and before even more beds come online for any further increase in critical care admissions – we have 56 spare ICU beds.”

He went on: “We also have 3,820 geriatric and acute beds. At present there are currently 603 Covid-19 related inpatients – including both confirmed and or suspected cases.

“There are a further 1,345 non-covid patients in hospitals across Northern Ireland, meaning that as it stands we have almost 1,900 empty beds.

“If our modelling is accurate, this should be more than sufficient capacity to meet this surge. In the event of an extreme surge, Northern Ireland’s first Nightingale Hospital has now been established at Belfast City Hospital...if the surge is more severe than expected, this new regional unit will have the capacity to treat up to 230 ventilated patients from across Northern Ireland.”

Likening health workers on the front line to soldiers during a war, Mr Swann said that often after a war the soldiers are forgotten. That, he said, must not happen after the pandemic has passed and those who have fought it must be looked after.

Mr Swann warned that in the absence of a vaccine health staff will have to plan for a potential second wave later this year once restrictions are eased and added: “It is highly likely that this planet is going to be battling the Coronavirus well into 2021 at least. The prospect of a second surge later this year must weigh heavily on all our minds.”

Urging the public not to take the good news as a reason to ignore the advice to remain at home if possible, he said that the progress made over recent weeks “will be lost very quickly if there is any adverse change in compliance with the existing social distancing measures”.

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