Coronavirus: Northern Ireland’s projected death toll revised downwards

At one stage, a worst-case scenario predicated on the virus being able to transmit freely warned that 15,000 could die in the Province.

Today, Stormont health chiefs said that potential toll had been revised down to 1,500 during the first 20 weeks of the outbreak.

Stormont Health Minister Robin Swann said: “This is a significant revision on the previous modelling. This is not a prediction or a forecast. It provides a clear indication that social distancing is working. It provides encouragement to everyone who is working hard to do the right thing.”

Mr Swann said 13 more people had died overnight after testing positive for Covid-19 taking the total to 207.

Forty patients were in intensive care units earlier on Monday and hospitals had recorded 88 Covid-19 admissions on Sunday.

Police have issued fines to those found to be in breach of strict criteria for leaving their homes.

Northern Ireland’s chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said: “The actions we have taken over the last number of weeks is making a real difference.

“Our health service has not been overwhelmed.”

Health workers have received millions of items of personal protective equipment. Care homes and care in the community providers received 1.9 million items last week and another 1.7 million the week before, an NHS official said during the daily briefing at Stormont.

Mr Swann said he did not have any regrets on when Northern Ireland locked down.

He said the Province took action around 10-14 days earlier than some countries, in terms of the relative spread of the disease within the population.

“So it’s not a matter of regret where we were, I think we were actually in quite a good place when we did take the decision to lock down,” he said.

Dr McBride said Northern Ireland took action earlier than other parts of the UK and that had had an impact.

“The rate of new cases and tragically also the cases of deaths in Northern Ireland is very different from the rest of the United Kingdom,” he said.

“That would suggest that the application of the measures happened at an earlier point in time. That has been to the benefit of the population in Northern Ireland, and indeed has ensured our health service has not been overwhelmed.

“In Northern Ireland the path of the epidemic is very similar, and indeed probably a little bit lower than that even in the Republic of Ireland.”