Coronavirus: Viral expert says Northern Ireland may face waves of lockdowns as O’Neill talks of ‘years of social distancing’

Queen’s University Belfast medical professor Dr Ultan Power made the comments in the wake of an extraordinary declaration from the Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill.

At a press conference late on Friday afternoon, Ms O’Neill had said that “social distancing is going to be a feature of our lives; it’s going to be a feature of our lives for perhaps up to a couple of years if not beyond”.

Reporters were not physically present at the press conference and so no-one was able to ask a follow-up question about her remarks, which slipped by without any comment or attention.

The News Letter has asked the Executive Office on what basis she made this claim, and whether the whole Executive shares this view.

Questions on the subject were also put to the Department of Health and the DUP, neither of which responded.

However, Dr Power – who has been a vocal figure throughout the pandemic period – has said that it could end up being the case that there is not one single lockdown, but a series of them.

He said: “From a virology point of view, you could imagine that until we have a vaccine or an anti-viral, we’re going to have conditions where we’ll have several waves of infection throughout the community.

“That’s what normally happens when a new virus is introduced.

“It looks like it’s been under control because of the incredible efforts by everybody. In many places across the world, lockdowns have just been phenomenal. Everybody’s clapping the NHS and everything, but a lot of people need to give themselves a clap as well.”

Asked if it is possible that Northern Ireland will face successive waves of lockdown to match a cyclical spread of the virus, he “wouldn’t be privy to what they are thinking in the Executive”, and did not put a timescale on how long such a situation may persist.

But he responded: “It’s possible. Again, a lot of it depends on how this is handled ...

“I would expect to have waves. And if the waves are too severe, in that not enough action is taken while a new introduction happens, then it’s possible you might have to go into lockdown to close that down again.

“It could possibly be cyclical ... from the virology point of view it is a possibility that this could happen.”

When it comes to how the viral spread has been managed so far, he said: “If we didn’t do a major lockdown the potential for a disastrous outcome was huge in terms of number of deaths.

“But the fact we did, I think overall Northern Ireland ... has done reasonably good overall.”

At a UK-wide level, Northern Ireland’s infection rate is almost exactly half of the UK-wide average.

In terms of why this might be, he said “population density is highly likely to be a factor”.

Lower numbers of people arriving in Northern Ireland (or the Republic) compared with a global transport hub like London would influence it too.

In addition on this side of the Irish Sea the lockdown was “much more thorough” compared to London, where the Tube was “jam-packed” even after the government started insisting on social distancing.

In mid-March Dr Power had voiced fears that “UK government are not acting quick enough”, predicting that without a major clampdown the country will have death rates akin to Italy (which today has about 27,000 deaths – the highest in Europe).

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