Coronavirus: Warning that new restrictions are now ‘more likely than not’ for NI

The deputy First Minister stressed the need to explain the rationale for further measures as Stormont’s chief scientific adviser said it was “almost inevitable” the Covid-19 death rate would rise in the coming weeks.

Professor Ian Young said all indicators of the virus’s prevalence in the region were moving in the “wrong direction”, albeit on a “slower trajectory” than was witnessed when the first wave hit in March.

Chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said further restrictions were now more likely than not.

Ms O’Neill said the rising infection numbers were “very alarming”.

“We have tough decisions to take as an Executive in the coming weeks and months and I think all options need to be on the table because this is ultimately about how we protect our frontline health care workers, it’s ultimately about how do we keep our children in schools, it’s ultimately about how we are saving lives as we move through the pandemic,” she said.

Executive ministers are due to meet tomorrow to discuss whether the time has come for further restrictions to be introduced.

Ministers have previously raised the prospect of a short intensive lockdown – a so-called “circuit breaker” – being required to halt the spread of the virus.

Addressing the media at Stormont, Ms O’Neill said: “I want to avoid a circuit breaker, we want to avoid additional restrictions but unfortunately it appears that they are going to be necessary and as for the timing of when, that will be discussed on Thursday and we’ll hopefully be able to say a lot more about it after that.”

Professor Young said hospital admission numbers were doubling every seven days.

He said the rate was every four days when the first lockdown was ordered in March.

The executive’s chief scientific adviser said the current reproduction number in Northern Ireland – the average number of people an infected person infects – stood at 1.4. He said it was 2.8 in March.

“It’s a somewhat slower trajectory than in March but heading in the same direction for every aspect of the epidemic,” he said.

Dr McBride added: “It is a slower trajectory, but we will still end up at the same point, it just will take us longer to get there.”

The CMO said Northern Ireland could reach 300 Covid-19 inpatients a day – the rate back in March – within the “next couple of weeks”.

Professor Young said the region was currently in a lag period before which increased hospital admission rates would be followed by increased deaths.

“It’s almost inevitable that, as hospital admissions increase, as patients in ICU increase, which we’re seeing now, unfortunately and sadly the number of deaths will increase as well,” he said.