Educational failure now ‘will be felt for more than 50 years’

Despite opposition from some quarters to the return of children to school due to fears that they could spread coronavirus, there has been increasing recognition of the harm caused by children not being in school – especially to those children already facing difficulties at home or in the classroom.

Today the non-aligned Northern Ireland think tank Pivotal will publish a report which sets out starkly how damaging this crisis will be not just for individual children, but for the economy as they grow up and enter the workforce.

The report examines the challenges facing the Executive as Stormont prepares to return from its summer recess.

In large part, the document urges the Executive to do what multiple other reports from myriad sources have done for many years – improve how government works, push through health reforms which in some cases have been put off for decades, and prioritise education.

But on top of those existing challenges sits planning for recovery from the economic devastation of the pandemic.

Referring to the difficulties caused by keeping children out of school for so long, and the likelihood that even if schools do not again fully close there will be many individual children who cannot attend the classroom for significant periods, it said: “A failure to adequately resource educational recovery could lead to a large cohort of children failing to reach their potential.

“Across Northern Ireland, 14 cohorts of students have so far been affected by the lockdown. Therefore from the mid-2030s, and for the 50 years following that, approximately a quarter of the entire workforce could have lower skills and a lower growth rate if the learning gaps caused by lockdown prove significant.

“This scenario has the potential to create long lasting negative social and economic consequences.”

The report also criticises Stormont’s indecision over how to handle academic selection this year, saying that “the Executive has not shown clear leadership about the upcoming transfer process despite the obviously challenging context. It is difficult to see how the transfer process in 2020 can be seen to be fair when children have had such varied experiences during lockdown, with evidence showing widening attainment gaps as a result”.

Pandemic an opportunity for Executive to reform

The Stormont Executive needs to be ambitious and united about leading the recovery from the pandemic, think tank Pivatal said in the report to be published today.

The report gave the Executive credit for having largely been able to work together towards addressing the challenge of coronavirus, although it said there had been “some notable and significant exceptions”.

It also highlighted evidence of Northern Ireland’s success such as having the lowest death rate in the UK, even though it is too early to be entirely clear as to why that was, given how little we still know about the virus.

It said that the Executive “needs to govern for the long-term, not just this year or this electoral period” and that it “needs to start making difficult decisions about public service reform”

The pandemic, it said, has ”provided the government with an opportunity to re-assess historical weaknesses within Northern Ireland’s economy, along with the opportunity to encourage sectors that develop sustainable economic growth”.

The report calls for large infrastructure projects to be prioritised, along with improving the skills of the population to work in the modern economy.

Pivotal said that the unprecedented transformation of the health service to fight covid had shown how long-term reform of the NHS in Northern Ireland could be achieved if it was given sufficient support.

It highlighted that multiple government-commissioned reports have for years agreed on the need to shift care out of hospitals; more focus on prevention and early intervention; support for people to live independently; and rationalisation of acute services.

It said that the Executive parties’ support for reform need to be followed by action because “for too long difficult choices have been avoided”.

And it also called for “an urgent action plan to reduce waiting lists, particularly for those who have been waiting more than one year.”

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