ELECTION 2022 constituency profile: Major changes unlikely in Mid Ulster

The republican party secured over half of all first preferences last time, and will be hopeful of a repeat result this time.

And with Sinn Fein deciding against a more aggressive approach in fielding more than three candidates, the SDLP stalwart Patsy McGlone will be seeking to hold onto the seat he won in 2017.

If that is to be the outcome, and if results from five years ago are to be any guide, the DUP candidate Keith Buchannan will be confident he can secure what was the sole unionist seat last time.

In 2017 Mr Buchanan came close to topping the poll, and was elected on the first count with his 9,568 first preferences having been beaten only by Ms O’Neill.

So it appears, at first glance, that Mid Ulster could be the most predictable of Northern Ireland’s 18 Assembly constituencies.

But nothing in politics can be taken for granted, and there is a possibility that unionist parties could reclaim the second Mid Ulster seat that was lost in 2017 when the number of seats was culled from six to five.

There were around 700 votes between the 2017 UUP candidate Sandra Overend and the SDLP’s Mr McGlone last time, and the UUP candidate Meta Graham is talking up the prospect of a return to two unionist seats in Mid Ulster in 2022.

Speaking to the News Letter, she said: “I think there is every chance that two unionists can be returned in Mid Ulster.

“People need to come out and vote, and they need to transfer their votes [to other unionist parties], and there will be every chance of two unionist seats – of that I am very confident.”

As for the DUP candidate Keith Buchanan, he suggested a second unionist seat is possible if not highly likely –and contingent on a high turnout amongst the unionist electorate.

“It’s a possibility but you would need a very strong unionist turnout,” he told the News Letter.

“Let’s say 80-85%. I can’t give exact exact numbers but unionist first preferences last time were around fifteen-and-a-half thousand, roughly, if you add up all the unionist parties [the DUP, UUP and TUV combined secured 15,328 first preferences in 2017].

“Therefore, you would need a better turnout and you would need maybe a bad transfer amongst non-unionist parties.

“So it is a small one, but it is a possibility.”

The TUV, meanwhile, will be hoping a late change of candidate won’t deter voters.

Jack Platts had been due to put forward the TUV’s ‘no sea border’ message in Mid Ulster, but was replaced by Glenn Moore in early April with the party citing ‘personal reasons’ for Mr Platts’ withdrawal.

Mr Moore, in a pre-election message posted on social media, said some parties had resorted to “scaremongering”.

“So-called parties who said they weren’t bothered are now resorting back to their scaremongering tactics,” Mr Moore said.

“I’d just like everybody to remain strong, and be courageous.”

Of the other parties, Alliance looks best placed to pull off what would be a massive upset in taking a seat.

In 2017 the Alliance candidate Fay Watson won just over 1,000 first preferences,and in the general election the same year she managed a similar number.

But the party’s vote increased to 3,526 in the 2019 Westminster election, suggesting an upward trend.

OUTGOING MLAs

Keith Buchanan (DUP)

Patsy McGlone (SDLP)

Emma Sheerin (Sinn Fein)

Linda Dillon (Sinn Fein)

Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein)

CANDIDTES

Claire Hackett (Alliance)

Alixandra Halliday (Aontu)

Keith Buchanan (DUP)

Stefan Taylor (Green)

Sophia McFeely (People Before Profit)

Conor Rafferty (Resume)

Patsy McGlone (SDLP)

Emma Sheerin (SF)

Linda Dillon (SF)

Michelle O’Neill (SF)

Glenn Moore (TUV)

Meta Graham (UUP)

Hugh Scullion (Workers)

Patrick Haughey (Independent)

March 2017 Stormont election result

Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein) 10,258 first preference votes, 20.65%, ELECTED

Keith Buchanan (DUP) 9,568 first preference votes, 19.26%, ELECTED

Ian Milne (Sinn Fein) 8,143 first preference votes, 16.39%, ELECTED

Linda Dillon (Sinn Fein) 7,806 first preference votes, 15.71%, ELECTED

Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 6,419 first preference votes 12.92%, ELECTED

Sandra Overend (UUP) 4,516 first preference votes 9.09%

Hannah Loughrin (TUV) 1,244 first preference votes 2.5%

Fay Watson (Alliance) 1,017 first preference votes, 2.05%

Hugh McCloy (Independent) 247 first preference votes, 0.5%

Stefan Taylor (Green) 243 first preference votes, 0.49%

Hugh Scullion (Workers) 217 first preference votes, 0.44%

December 2019 general election result

Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) 20,473 votes, 45.9%, ELECTED

Keith Buchanan (DUP) 10,936 votes, 24.5%

Denise Johnston (SDLP) 6,384 votes, 14.3%

Mel Boyle (Alliance) 3,526 votes, 7.9%

Neil Richardson (UUP) 2,611 votes, 5.9%

Conor Rafferty (Independent) 690 votes, 1.5%