ELECTION 2022: DUP set sights on defending what they have in South Antrim as UUP and SDLP rivals circle

Back in 1998 – the very first Assembly election – unionism at large scooped up some 64% of the first preference votes according to the Ulster University-run ARK online elections archive (from which the data in this piece is drawn).

Broadly speaking, it has remained consistent.

By the time of the 2011 Assembly poll this fell to 61%... thenrose to 65.3% in 2016... before taking a dip the following year: dropping to 58.2%.

Perhaps part of this was down to the RHI scandal, which had broken in the months before the 2017 poll, and which was largely laid at the door of the DUP.

But not all of it was – all three main unionist parties saw their vote share drop that year (while UKIPs’s vote vanished altogether, the Brexit referendum having already secured an exit for the UK from the EU a year before the 2017 Assembly poll).

Whilst there has been no Assembly election since 2017, there has been a brace of Westminster ones – and if the results of those are anything to go by, unionism remains capable of pulling in maybe two-thirds of the popular vote: 69% of the votes in the 2017 General Election went to unionist candidates, followed by 64.3% in the 2019 one.

So, when it comes to a barometer of the overall strength of unionism in the constituency, the question is whether the unionist parties can improve on their slack 2017 Assembly results, and make them more like recent Westminster ones.

WHAT DOES ANY OF THIS MEAN FOR STORMONT?

While these overall vote tallies will be watched keenly, what ultimately matters to the parties involved is how many MLAs they can bring home.

South Antrim has existed as a constituency ever since the Assembly was formed, with some relatively minor alterations.

But when it was decided that the overall number of MLAs should drop between 2016 and 2017, it meant that the usual six available seats in the constituency dropped to five – and that came at a cost the DUP.

Instead of a Sinn Fein, Alliance, UUP and three DUP MLAs, the DUP came back with only two in 2017.

And this time round, the DUP are only fielding two candidates: incumbents Trevor Clarke and Pam Cameron.

Mr Clarke had lost his seat in the 2017 election – but despite the loss, he was soon co-opted into the seat to replace Paul Girvan, who won a seat in the House of Commons and so was elevated to a London role.

Asked about how the DUP may fare, given that the party has faced some anger over its handling of the Protocol situation, he said: “I think we’re all quite happy with the response we’re getting. Clearly there’s polls indicating something different. The only poll that will really matter is polling day. I’m quite happy with the response we’re getting.”

Whilst the Protocol has come up on the doorsteps, he said arguably the stand-out issue is the rising cost of living.

And while the DUP have given up on the idea of taking a third seat by only fielding two candidates, the Alliance has likewise given up on the idea of a seizing an extra one too, by dint of its sole candidate.

So could the UUP, with two candidates, take a seat from the DUP, or might the SDLP edge in to take one?

Mr Clarke does not anticipate a change in the political make-up of the seat, but added that “some are saying SDLP is maybe in with a chance for one of ours – I’m not sure how that’d work given the number of unionist votes that’d be floating about”.

COUNCIL VETERAN BULLISH ABOUT ABILITY TO EXPAND:

Meanwhile UUP man Paul Michael, with a career in council stretching back to 1999, is hoping to become a new addition to the Assembly – at the expense of one of the DUP’s MLAs – having narrowly missed out in 2017.

“I do believe we will take two [seats],” he said.

“I’ve never witnessed what I’m witnessing now. I’ve been election agent to MP past Danny Kinahan and all that, so I’m very much experienced on the campaign trail.

“What we’re hearing is crystal clear: those people who were very much supportive of the DUP in the past will not guaranteeing their support this time round.”

The reason, in large part, was the Protocol, he said.

WHO IS STANDING?

Here are the outgoing MLAS:

Declan Kearney (SF)

Pam Cameron (DUP)

Trevor Clarke (DUP)

Steve Aiken (UUP)

John Blair (Alliance)

And here are the contenders vying for your vote:

Mel Lucas (TUV)

Pam Cameron (DUP)

Trevor Clarke (DUP)

Steve Aiken (UUP)

Paul Michael (UUP)

John Blair (Alliance)

Lesley Veronica (Green)

Jerry Maguire (PBP)

Andrew Moran (Ind)

Roisin Lynch (SDLP)

Declan Kearney (SF)

Roisin Bennett (Aontu)

THE RAW FIGURES:

The 2017 Assembly election results:

Declan Kearney / Sinn Féin / 6,891 / 16.3% / ELECTED

Stephen Aiken / UUP / 6,287 / 14.8% / ELECTED

David Ford / Alliance / 5,278 / 12.5% / ELECTED

Paul Girvan / DUP / 5,152 / 12.2% / ELECTED

Pam Cameron / DUP / 4,604 / 10.9% / ELECTED

Trevor Clarke / DUP / 4,522 / 10.7%

Roisin Lynch / SDLP / 4,024 / 9.5%

Adrian Cochrane-Watson / UUP / 2,505 / 5.9%

Richard Cairns / TUV / 1,353 / 3.2%

Ivanka Antova / PBP / 530 / 1.3%

David Mcmaster / Ind. / 503 / 1.2%

Eleanor Bailey / Green / 501 / 1.2%

Mark Logan / Con. / 194 / 0.5%

The 2019 Westminster election results:

Paul Girvan / DUP / 15,149 / 35.3% / ELECTED

Danny Kinahan / UUP / 12,460 / 29%

John Blair / Alliance / 8,190 / 19.1%

Declan Kearney / SF / 4,887 / 11.4%

Roisin Lynch / SDLP / 2,288 / 5.3%

Girvan majority: 2,689