Election 2022: Familiar battle ahead in East Londonderry

Its landscape is picturesque with rolling farmland, peppered with tight-knit rural communities, with quaint seaside towns like Castlerock and Portstewart, and with large population centres like Limavady and Coleraine where independent shops, cafes and family businesses still flourish alongside the larger chains that have come to dominate elsewhere.

There is a sense of familiarity in East Londonderry that is reflected in the political landscape.

But even here, where the old certainties still feel certain, change could be just around the corner.

This time around, the DUP are taking no chances and have opted to field only two candidates.

Alan Robinson, a Limavady man who has topped the poll in multiple local council elections, steps in to take the reins from his father George.

The former mayor is joined by the incumbent Maurice Bradley, a former mayor of Coleraine who proved the most popular unionist in the race when it came to first preference votes in 2017.

Mr Robinson said: “We go into this election without taking anything for granted, but we go into this on a track record of having done good work locally.

“The reason we’re fielding two candidates is because of the reduction in the number of seats from six down to five. It’s reflective of the fact that we recognise that there should be, and we hope that there is, two DUP seats. We would rather get the two than try for three and end up with one.”

But it isn’t certain they will both make it across the line in what is set to be a highly competitive contest.

The TUV’s party chairman Jordan Armstrong calls East Londonderry his home, and will be hoping to cause an upset with a typically uncompromising stance on the protocol and what he described as the “dysfunction” at Stormont.

“I believe I’m going to take a seat here,” he said. “There is a groundswell of support from those who are disillusioned with the DUP. I’ve been running a positive campaign and there’s definitely a lot of support.”

The UUP, meanwhile, have put forward the congenial Darryl Wilson as its candidate and the Ballymoney councillor has put forward a strong pro-Stormont message throughout his campaign.

“People are concerned about the health waiting lists, the cost-of-living crisis and numerous social issues which affect you and your families,” he said. “I know [the electorate]’ want stable and cohesive government at Stormont.”

Complicating the race further is the independent unionist Claire Sugden, who was the first East Londonderry candidate to make it across the line in 2017 and will be hoping for a repeat of that result which made her the only MLA elected without the backing of a party machine.

A confident Ms Sugden said: “I don’t think we’re going to see too much change in terms of the seats. I think perhaps things will end up as they were, with change coming maybe at that bottom end where at the election there was a close fight with only a few hundred votes between Sinn Fein and the SDLP.”

On the nationalist side, things are balanced on a knife edge.

SDLP candidate Cara Hunter was co-opted to the Assembly in May 2020 to take on the seat that had been won in dramatic circumstances in 2017 by the late John Dallat.

This time, Sinn Fein will be hoping to secure a second seat at Ms Hunter’s expense as Benbradagh councillor Kathleen McGurk joins the incumbent Caoimhe Archibald. The great unkown, however, is how the Alliance candidate Chris McCaw will fare with recent Westminster results suggesting an upward trajectory.

Full list of candidates

Chris McCaw (Alliance)

Gemma Brolly (Aontu)

Maurice Bradley (DUP)

Alan Robinson (DUP)

Mark Coulson (Green)

Amy Merron (PBP)

Russell Watton (PUP)

Cara Hunter (SDLP)

Caoimhe Archibald (SF)

Kathleen McGurk (SF)

Jordan Armstrong (TUV)

Darryl Wilson (UUP)

Claire Sugden (Ind)

Stephanie Quigley (Ind)

Billy Stewart (Ind)

Niall Murphy (Ind)

Outgoing MLAs

Caoimhe Archibald (SF)

Cara Hunter (SDLP)

Claire Sugden (Ind)

George Robinson (DUP)

Maurice Bradley (DUP)

March 2017 Stormont election result

Caoimhe Archibald Sinn Fein 5,851 13.9 ELECTED

Maurice Bradley DUP 5,444 13 ELECTED

Claire Sugden Ind 4,918 11.75 ELECTED

George Robinson DUP 4,715 11.26 ELECTED

John Dallat SDLP 3,319 7.93 ELECTED

Cathal O hOisin Sinn Fein 4,953 11.83

Adrian McQuillan DUP 3,881 9.27

William McCandless UUP 2,814 6.72

Chris McCaw Alliance 1,841 4.4

Gerry Mullan Independent 1,204 2.88

Jordan Armstrong TUV 1,038 2.48

Russell Watton PUP 879 2.1

Gavin Campbell PBP 492 1.17

Anthony Flynn Green 305 0.73

David Harding Conservative 219 0.52

December 2019 general election result

Gregory Campbell DUP 15,765 40.1 ELECTED

Cara Hunter SDLP 6,158 15.7

Dermot Nicholl Sinn Fein 6,128 15.6

Chris McCaw Alliance 5,921 15.1

Richard Holmes UUP 3,599 9.2

Sean McNicholl Aontu 1,731 4.4