ELECTION 2022: No surprises expected in Sinn Fein West Belfast stronghold

It appears highly likely that in this constituency – which has the highest levels of deprivation in Northern Ireland – Sinn Fein will hold its four seats with People Before Profit’s (PBP) Gerry Carroll also being returned.

PBP has decided not to run a second candiate this time around and that should ensure the safe passage of Mr Carroll back to Stormont.

In this overwhelmingly Catholic constituency, a number of priests have made emotive pleas from the pulpit in recent weeks for parishioners to turn away from parties viewed as pro-abortion – including Sinn Fein and the SDLP – in favour of anti-abortion candidates.

One even named Antou as the party Catholics should vote for on May 5.

On Easter Monday, Fr Patrick McCafferty told his Corpus Christi congregation in Ballymurphy they should vote for the Antou candidate, saying: “The evil of abortion is irreconcilable with being a Catholic, and the evil of abortion is promoted by parties like Sinn Féin and the SDLP and the rest of them... the Alliance... and all that other crew.”

Last Thursday, Fr Brendan Keane conducting a service at Clonard Monastry said: “The teaching of the church is that human life is sacred, that the baby in the womb is sacred, and has a right to life, but it is also clear that there are people who would say, and say very strongly, and a number of our political parties hold this view, that it’s okay to kill the baby in the womb. It isn’t, and we need to be aware of that as we go and vote next week.

“A lot of the political parties would prefer if we didn’t even see it as an issue.”

The SDLP’s Alex Attwood lost the last SDLP seat in West Belfast in 2017 – his 3,452 votes almost 1,500 behind Gerry Carroll who claimed the fifth and final seat – however, the SDLP is fielding Paul Doherty who is well-known for his community work in the area, including running a busy food bank.

Frank McCoubrey of the DUP is the best hope of a surprise unionist seat, however, with the UUP and TUV also running candidates a shock doesn’t appear to be on the cards.

Last week, DUP MP Gregory Campbell called on unionists to unite behind the DUP candidate.

In a tweet in support of Mr McCoubrey, he said: “West Belfast is a constituency where unionists have not had a voice at Assembly levels for years. With an 80+% nationalist majority in the last Westminster election poll Frank McCoubrey got 13.5% of the vote when it was very difficult to win. In this Assembly election a candidate who gets over 15% will almost certainly get elected.

“If West Belfast unionists come out to vote for Mr McCoubrey (when they couldn’t win) and they did, all the more reason to come out on 5th May when they can win.”

A letter writer to the News Letter suggested, and the paper understands, that unsuccessful attempts had been made, by people outside the three parties, to have them agree a single candidate.

Ulster Unionist candidate Linsey Gibson said: “I believe that political choice is important given the different types of politics that the different unionist parties offer and it is the positive, confident unionism of the Ulster Unionist Party that I am putting before the electorate.

“Given it is a PR election, people should be able to vote for their number one choice and then allocate second and third preferences accordingly.”

“The key issue is turnout. There is no doubt that much work needs to be need done to encourage a higher level of political engagement within parts of West Belfast, especially working class unionist areas.

TUV candidate Jordan Doran believes he can make a positive impact.

“I grew up in the Ballysillan area of north Belfast and was educated at Belfast Boys’ Model School and Northumbria University.

“I am proud of his cultural heritage and am an active member of Cavehill LOL 1956,” he said.

“I am a leader at the 92nd Boys’ Brigade at Eglinton Presbyterian Church and am determined to get young people involved in their community.

“As a volunteer with various community projects in the Westlands area I am keen to prove that with all of this valuable experience, young people can have a voice at Stormont,” Mr Doran added.

OUTGOING MLAS:

Órlaithí Flynn (SF)

Alex Maskey (SF)

Fra McCann (SF)

Pat Sheehan (SF)

Gerry Carroll (PBP)

2019 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT:

Paul Maskey Sinn Fein 20,866 53.8 ELECTED

Gerry Carroll PBP 6,194 16

Frank McCoubrey DUP 5,220 13.5

Paul Doherty SDLP 2,985 7.7

Donnamarie Higgins Alliance 1,882 4.9

Monica Digney Aontu 1,635 4.2

2017 STORMONT ELECTION RESULT:

Órlaithí Flynn Sinn Fein 6,918 17.1% ELECTED

Alex Maskey Sinn Fein 6,346 15.7% ELECTED

Fra McCann Sinn Fein 6,201 15.4% ELECTED

Pat Sheehan Sinn Fein 5,466 13.5% ELECTED

Gerry Carroll PBP 4,903 12.2% ELECTED

Frank McCoubrey DUP 4,063 10.1%

Alex Attwood SDLP 3,452 8.6%

Michael Collins PBP 1,096 2.7%

Sorcha Eastwood Alliance 747 1.9%

Fred Rodgers UUP 486 1.2%

Conor Campbell Workers Party 415 1.0%

Ellen Murray Green Party 251 0.6%

YOUR 2022 CANDIDATES:

Danny Baker (SF)

Gerard Burns (Ind)

Gerry Carroll (PBP)

Patrick Crossan (WP)

Paul Doherty (SDLP)

Jordan Doran (TUV)

Orlaithi Flynn (SF)

Linsey Gibson (UUP)

Gerard Herdman (Aontu)

Donnamarie Higgins (All)

Declan Hill (Ind)

Stevie Maginn (Greens)

Tony Mallon – Ind

Frank McCoubrey (DUP)

Dan Murphy (IRSP)

Aisling Reilly (SF)

Pat Sheehan (SF)