Election 2023 - Lisburn and Castlereagh: How will unionism fare after Alliance Party vote surge last time?

But in a sign of how unpredictable the results can be when using a PR-style transfer vote system, that outcome was a terrible one for the DUP, because it shed five seats compared to 2014 despite its share of the first preference vote dipping by barely 4%.

Doubtless the party will want to reconquer that ground, but it could be a tough fight, since a comparison of the 2014 and 2019 votes shows rising fortunes for non-unionists.

From 2014 to 2019, both Sinn Fein and Alliance grew their presence on the council by two seats, with the SDLP adding an extra one.

But could it be Alliance which worries unionists most?

Despite having increased slightly from 2014 to 2019, going from seven seats to nine, the party's share of the first preference vote literally doubled in that period, from 12% to 24%.

What is more, last time around the party stood nine candidates, every one of whom was successful. This time, it is standing 14.

Jonathan Craig, a DUP candidate who served as an MLA from 2007 to 2016, told the News Letter: “The main issues on the door are rates, rates, rates, and rates.”

In Lisburn and Castlereagh they recently increased by 7.4%, he said.

On the question of a return to Stormont, “there is a huge section of the community doesn't want the party going back until the protocol is sorted”.

It's a majority view, “certainly amongst the unionists I've been speaking to” he said.

And whilst he said “I don't make predictions about elections,” he added: “I'd be absolutely confident that we'll return with more than we left.”

The picture is quite different according to erstwhile UUP councillor John Palmer.

“The main issue I think is regional government not working, and people would like to get Stormont up and working again," he told the News Letter.

What about the UUP's likely trajectory?

“I think Lagan Valley will probably be status quo. I think we will hold on to what we have. I think we'd be ok if we come back with 11.”

TUV candidate Andrew Girvin was a councillor from 2014 to 2019.

He said: “I don't think I've had one negative person on the doors yet – not one.”

And while many of the issues he is hearing on the doorsteps are local ones (speed limits, grass cutting) he is also detecting disaffection with the DUP.

His prediction? “I think two of us will get in out of three,” he said.