Henry McDonald: Hassle-free passage of Protocol Bill a win for the DUP... for now

Their predictions that the Conservative Party leadership contest would mortally wound the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill have proved unfounded.

The hopes of Europhiles on both sides of the Irish Sea that the Tories might retreat from legislation that has the potential to set up a major confrontation with Brussels turned out to be dashed.

They had invested heavily, in particular, in the candidacy of ex-chancellor Rishi Sunak, whom it is no secret to say, expressed some misgivings about the legislation to override what unionists believe are “Union-threatening” aspects of the NI Protocol.

Mr Sunak was known to be concerned about the potential of such a radical overhaul in the protocol sparking a UK-EU trade war.

He might also have been worried that a bill that the Americans might regard as breaching the Belfast Agreement could endanger a much sought after trans-Atlantic, post-Brexit free trade deal.

Yet, Mr Sunak can surely read a room. The emergence on Wednesday evening of Penny Mordaunt as his main rival, who came second with 67 votes, is a weather vane of where the Tory Party is heading.

Coupled with a YouGov poll of the broader Conservative Party membership putting her as the grassroots’ most favoured candidate, Mr Sunak and his team realise that appeasing the EU is not going to endear him to the ultimate ‘selectorate’ – the wider party – who will elect the leader and next prime minister in the final round.

The European Research Group – the Brexiteer cohort within the parliamentary party – has been pivotal in this Protocol Bill debate.

Estimated at around 130 MPs, this faction has resolutely supported the protocol-changing legislation and will not forgive any candidate that retreats from the bill.

So, regardless of your views on Brexit, the protocol, or even NI’s constitutional future, Wednesday night has been, objectively speaking, a win for the DUP ... well, at least for now.