Newry & Armagh election profile: UUP hopes to win back Danny Kennedy’s seat - but TUV believes it can cause an upset

The party’s Newry and Armagh MLA Danny Kennedy urged voters in the constituency not to follow his lead but instead to transfer their vote to “the only other unionist candidate” in that area, adding that it was “important to protect pro-Union seats” in an election that saw every constituency slashed to five seats from six.

However, despite increasing his percentage of first preference votes (FPV) from 10.3% to 13.2% from the previous year – securing 7,265 FPV against a 9,154 quota – Mr Kennedy was eliminated at the third count, with the SDLP’s Justin McNulty leapfrogging him from sixth in 2016 to third, and squeezing him out.

In 2017 Sinn Fein took 48.3% of FPV in the area and the SDLP 16.4%, however in both 2016 and 2017 William Irwin of the DUP topped the poll.

Mr Kennedy’s election in 2016 suggests a unionist can take the fifth seat again, but several factors muddy the the unionist outcome.

Opinion polls suggest overall DUP support may wane this time – furthermore, an anti-NI Protocol rally in strongly unionist Markethill in February saw DUP MP Sammy Wilson heckled at length. The question is, how many such protestors will actually vote on polling day?

Mr Irwin said: “The DUP is currently the only unionist voice within Newry and Armagh in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The result of the election will be close and a Sinn Fein victory will see them use that to advance their divisive border poll agenda. The only way to prevent that is by voting DUP – and transferring to other pro-Union candidates to return the maximum number of pro-Union MLAs.”

UUP candidate David Taylor, who is enjoying Danny Kennedy’s support on the doors, signed a pledge at a hustings event in Armagh last month – contrary to his party leader’s position – in which the DUP, UUP and TUV candidates pledged to urge supporters to transfer to other unionists.

Mr Taylor said: “We narrowly lost out on an Assembly seat at the last election and have been very encouraged by how the canvass has gone throughout this Assembly campaign and the warm reception we have received. The Ulster Unionist Party is offering confident and positive unionism and that message is resonating with the people of Newry and Armagh. There have been numerous instances where people have said they are returning to vote for the Ulster Unionist Party.”

But TUV candidate Keith Ratcliffe, who says he has destroyed three pairs of shoes canvassing, claims unionists in the area are “really disillusioned” with their representation.

“The DUP voted dozens of NI Protocol regulations through and Doug Beattie has taken a very liberal stance on abortion, same-sex marriage and the national anthem at Northern Ireland football matches,” he said.

“People want someone to stand up for them and I really do believe in my heart that the TUV has a chance of taking a seat.”

Sinn Fein is hoping to retain its three seats and has a good chance of doing so. The party’s Conor Murphy is highlighting his track record in the Executive, where he said he prioritised billions of pounds of funding throughout the pandemic to support workers, families and businesses.

He wants to continue this work in the new mandate by providing “every household with £230 to help with the cost of living crisis” and is also proposing an extra £1 billion of investment into health over the next three years.

The SDLP’s Justin McNulty says the key issue arising on the doors is “the rising cost of food, fuel, and energy bills” and that people are also “angry” at the loss of services at Daisy Hill Hospital.

The Alliance Party’s Jackie Coade, a graduate in English and education and a lover of the Irish language, is “committed to campaigning for the restoration of the Portadown to Armagh rail link” and to delivering Alliance’s vision for “a better health service”.

A nationalist wildcard is independent Newry councillor Gavin Malone, who topped the council poll in 2019.

By fielding three candidates it seems to be focused on retaining its three MLAs.

FULL LIST OF CANDIDATES

Cathal Boylan (SF)

Jackie Coade (Alliance)

Daniel Connolly (Aontu)

Nicola Grant (WP)

Ciara Henry (Green)

William Irwin (DUP)

Liz Kimmins (SF)

Gavin Malone (Ind)

Justin McNulty (SDLP)

Conor Murphy (SF)

Keith Ratcliffe (TUV)

David Taylor (UUP)

OUTGOING MLAS

William Irwin (DUP)

Cathal Boylan (SF)

Justin McNulty (SDLP)

Megan Fearon (SF)

Conor Murphy (SF)

MARCH 2017 STORMONT ELECTION RESULT

William Irwin DUP 9,760 17.77% ELECTED

Cathal Boylan Sinn Fein 9,197 16.75% ELECTED

Justin McNulty SDLP 8,983 16.36% ELECTED

Megan Fearon Sinn Fein 8,881 16.17% ELECTED

Conor Murphy Sinn Fein 8,454 15.39% ELECTED

Danny Kennedy UUP 7,256 13.21%

Jackie Coade Alliance 1,418 2.58%

Emmet Crossan CISTA 704 1.28%

Rowan Tunnicliffe Green (NI) 265 0.48%

DECEMBER 2019 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT

Mickey Brady Sinn Fein 20,287 40.0 ELECTED

William Irwin DUP 11,000 21.7

Pete Byrne SDLP 9,449 18.6

Jackie Coade Alliance 4,211 8.3

Sam Nicholson UUP 4,204 8.3

Martin Kelly Aontú 1,628 3.2