NI Protocol: ​‘Unionist tension today feels like 1998 repeating itself’ says Alex Kane recalling UUP Good Friday Agreement turmoil

​Alex Kane, who has written extensively for the News Letter down the years about the state of unionism, was commenting in the wake of the emergence of the Windsor Framework – essentially a re-writing of the Protocol, which has already been heavily criticised by some DUP figures.

Ian Paisley and Sammy Wilson have already been openly critical of the new EU/UK deal, with others like Jim Shannon, Nigel Dodds, and Paul Girvan also voicing concerns about its possible ramifications.

It is likely that there is a breadth of opinion on whether or not unionists should accept the deal, or reject it – but so far critical politicians are the only ones willing to publicly voice a view.

Mr Kane, who was a member of the UUP in 1998 but did not start working for the party until the following year (ultimately becoming its director of communications), said the unionist tensions now and those at the time of the 1998 agreement are “almost identical”.

“If you look back to 1998, the time of the Good Friday Agreement when the document was released, you had on one side David Trimble, the PUP, and UDP, and on the other side the DUP, Bob McCartney, the UKUP,” he said.

“Fast-forward about 25 years we have one side clearly marked out: the Loyalist Communities Council, the Centre for the Union – Jamie Bryson’s lot – and Jim Allister saying ‘no’ or ‘it’s not good enough’.

"On the other side I suspect the UUP will come down on a soft ‘yes’. And my gut instinct – and I might be entirely wrong on this – my gut instinct is the DUP will probably go for the soft landing as well rather than outright rejection.”

He said the situation is “extraordinarily difficult” for the DUP, which will shortly be fighting a council election where the Protocol will likely be an issue for many voters.

“If Donaldson... decides, and manages to convince the DUP, to run with 'we are not rejecting this agreement' then that could be very interesting,” he opined.

"Because you remember last year, the anti-protocol rallies, there was Jeffrey, Jim, Bryson.

"This time we'd have a platform where Jeffrey wasn't there but you might have Sammy, and you might have Ian Paisley Junior.”

All in all, he said, “it's just history repeating itself”.

• Northern Ireland Protocol deal: 'When it comes to the crunch I see the DUP rejecting this' says 50-year veteran of the party