NI suicides rose steadily during pandemic and dropped 64% after all restrictions lifted - but expert warns figures are not statistically significant

According to the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), registered suicide rates from just before the pandemic rose as following;-

:: In 2019 they were 205

:: In 2020 they were 219

:: In 2021 they were 233 (provisional figure)

However after all Covid restrictions were lifted at the end of last year, the number of suicides in the first quarter of this year dropped 64% compared to the same period last year, when restrictions were still in place - down from 44 to 16.

The News Letter put it to several experts that the figures suggest lockdowns could have caused suicides to rise - and then drop off after all restrictions were lifted.

Robert McCartney, Chairman of Ards-based veterans mental charity Beyond the Battlefield, said this made sense. “Yes,” he said. “There is no doubt about it.”

The number of suicides among his clientele did not change during the pandemic - despite a 20% surge in calls for help - but he believes this was only because his charity made intense efforts to meet the rising demand.

”We had to bring in extra counselors, we had to specialise more in depth training and make ourselves more available. We also introduced family support, introducing families into the treatment of the client. We did an awful lot to increase reintegration [into society] rather than death.”

If he had not done this he is certain he there would have been a noticeable increase in suicides among his clients during the pandemic, as appears to have happened in the NISRA figures.

He also believes suicide rates more generally across NI may have increased during the pandemic because Covid restrictions cut down dramatically on mental health support.

“I would say that is definitely the case because many people could not get access to services - and any access there was through telephone and in a very few cases, by Zoom. But when you are treating someone that has those problems they don’t want to talk on the phone or by Zoom.”

In line with the NISRA figures, he too noticed a drop in suicide rates after all Covid restrictions were lifted at the end of last year. “We have only had three this year,” so far. “Last year, by the same time, it was seven or eight.”

However he believes this may be partly due to improved signposting of mental health services for veterans this year.

However NI’s Mental health champion, Professor Siobhan O’Neill, said none of the figures are statistically significant. Her role is independent and funded equally by all Executive Departments.

Due to delays in the registration of suicides, she said, the 2022 figures so far may have happened months or years before they were actually registered. In addition, she said, numbers go up and down all the time due to chance “which does not indicate a trend or underlying cause”.

For example, she said, of the 219 suicides registered in 2020, while most of them did happen that year - 110 - it was also true that 103 happened the year before, 10 occurred in 2018 and the remaining five happened in 2017 or earlier.

With regards to the figures from 2019-2021, which do show a year-on-year increase, she said there is “no statistically significant rise”.

“To report on suicide statistics accurately we must be look at the trends in deaths by suicides over the years and it is normal for the suicide rates to be higher some years compared with others.”

It is only when the trends over a few years show a statistically significant pattern that assertions about trends can be made and causes can be identified, she said.

She added: “[suicide] rates actually dropped at the time of the very first [Covid] restrictions, when, based on survey data the rates of distress were known to be very high. The association between restrictions and mental health is not a simple linear association, some groups showed improved wellbeing, and for most people the stress of the restrictions did not lead to mental illness. Many of those who felt vulnerable reported having better wellbeing at the time of the restrictions.”

Claire Curran, Head of Services with Survivors of Suicide Group in East Belfast, said that her organisation had also noticed a significant increase in demand for support during the pandemic.

“Everyone who uses statistics must be considerate that behind every figure is a grieving loved one and for every statistic shared or talked about, that hurts these real people in real life trying to deal with their trauma,” she told the News Letter. “Anyone using statistics has a responsibility to minimise the harm done to others and not to contribute to this hurt felt.”

Lisa Archibald is Coordination & Development Officer with the Families Voices Forum, which is based in Londonderry but works with trusts across NI to prevent suicide.

Her organisation has been involved in the review of statistics around suicide led by NISRA.

“Through this work we have learned how to use statistics in a way that supports our communities by influencing change and improvements in the suicide care pathway,” she told the News Letter.

“Part of that is realising the problems of lifting particular figures or narrowing down a perspective that in itself does not provide an accurate picture, does not help to create any solutions and which can mislead members of the public about what is really happening. During the years mentioned [above] the data is not reflective of the timeframe due to the review process and it will create fallacies to suggest or assume correlations across this timeframe.”

Meanwhile, it was revealed today that a review into 467 undetermined deaths has led to a major downward revision in suicide statistics recorded in NI. Previous figures had indicated that NI had the highest suicide rate in the UK, but following the review by NISRA and the Coroner’s Service, NI now has a lower suicide rate than Scotland. A number of cases between 2015 and 2018 had been coded as undetermined intent and therefore fell within the official definition of suicide as opposed to accidental, which are outside the definition. However, out of the 467 cases - many drug related - 84% have now been recorded as accidental and not suicide.

The official UK definition of suicide encompasses deaths due to external causes relating to intentional self-harm and of undetermined intent. It does not include deaths where the outcome was deemed accidental.

If you have been affected by any of the above issues you can call the following helplines for support:

:: Samaritans 116 123

:: Lifeline 0808 808 8000

:: Survivors of Suicide Support Group 028 90 460201

:: Beyond the Battlefield 028 91 228389