Nicola Sturgeon quits: Scottish nationalism ‘has lost irreplaceable asset’ despite claims party is 'awash' with talent

Henry Hill (@HCH_Hill), the deputy editor of the influential Tory-leaning website ConservativeHome, was speaking following her resignation address, during which she said the SNP remains “awash” with talent.

"For all her faults, Nicola Sturgeon was an irreplaceable asset to the SNP,” said Mr Hill.

"None of the likely candidates to succeed her exhibit anything approaching her skills as a politician, if not a governor.

"As she noted in her speech, the Nationalists will now need to decide on whether to proceed with her high-risk, long-shot strategy of using the next general election as a 'proxy vote' on independence – a policy she has decided not to carry through herself.

"Ultimately, the SNP owe their dominance to uniting separatist voters behind them. But with the polling on independence going nowhere, that strategy will run out of road sooner or later.

"Sturgeon quitting the driving seat may bring that moment closer – or perhaps she could just see it coming."

Polling on the issue has long veered wildly between pro-Union and pro-independence, depending when, how, and by whom each survey was done.

One of the last reliable polls was done online in late-January by YouGov, involving just under 1,100 people.

In answer to the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” some 40% said ‘Yes’, and 46% said ‘No’, with most of the rest saying ‘Don’t know’.

The website What Scotland Thinks, which describes itself as providing “impartial, up-to-date information on public attitudes to Scottish independence”, draws together the results of opinion polls since 2016.

Leaving aside ‘don’t-knows’, the long term trends show pro-independence responses varying from a low of 39% in April 2017 to a high of 59% in October 2020.

Mr Hill said the long-term picture is that polling remains “stuck” roughly around the 55 / 45 split found during the 2014 referendum, with “no momentum, no evidence of a sustained shift in opinion towards independence”.