Northern Ireland Protocol: A breakdown of where we are right now as rumours swirl of a Tory Brexiteer rebellion

In the last 24 hours, The Guardian has reported that “more than 100” Tory MPs stand ready to rebel against Rishi Sunak if they deem a deal on the Protocol to be too thin.

The piece quotes James Duddridge – a former junior minister in the foreign office, and later briefly in the Department for Exiting the EU – as saying this: “It won’t just be the so-called ‘Spartans’ [the most hardline anti-Protocol Brexiteers].

“There will be a large number of Brexiters [sic], possibly the majority of the parliamentary party, and potentially running into treble figures.”

There are some 355 Tory MPs in the Commons, and 196 Labour ones.

The remaining 99 are mainly SNP, LibDem and Independents.

In short, the Tories enjoy a majority in the Commons of 67 MPs.

This lets the PM ram through whatever bill he wants... so long as his party whips can shepherd the rank-and-file to vote as Mr Sunak desires.

Crucially, the Labour Party has already – before even seeing the outcome of a deal – indicated that it will back Mr Sunak over the issue.

In other words, if Mr Sunak’s deal runs into objections from the DUP and Tory fellow travellers, he will still probably be able to force it through even without their help (although this would be an embarrassment for him).

Ultimately, these number games may be a moot point anyway – Downing Street today refused to say whether MPs will get a vote on any new deal.

••• WHAT IS GOING ON WITH BORIS? •••

On Sunday, news outlets were awash with reports about an intervention by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The reports indicated he had either briefed the media directly or got someone to do it on his behalf, saying that “it would be a great mistake to drop the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill”.

This is the bill, currently hovering in limbo, which would give UK ministers the power to unilaterally over-ride the Protocol.

The EU had reacted with anger when the bill was first announced, and it was put on ice while negotiations with Brussels took place in the hope that a bargain could be struck, negating the need for the bill.

On the one hand, the same Guardian piece above quotes senior Tory Robert Buckland as saying: “Now that the negotiations are real and progressing, I think that the situation has significantly changed. The bill is a dead letter.”

On the other, Simon Clarke – the former Secretary of State “for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities” – called for the government to re-awaken the bill and lead it through towards completion.

“It is absolutely imperative tactically to give our negotiators the strongest possible hand to play with Brussels,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“If the perception is there that the Bill is moribund then that will, I am afraid, weaken our hand very considerably.”

As for Mr Johnson’s backstairs intervention, former Tory chancellor George Osborne said it was less out of concern for Northern Ireland, and more about personal vendettas.

"He wants to bring down Sunak and he will use any instrument to do it,” said Mr Osborne.

"If the Northern Ireland negotiations are that instrument, he will pick it up and hit Sunak over the head with it.”

••• SO HOW CLOSE IS A DEAL? •••

Truly, who knows?

The Press Association news agency reported this morning: “Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and the European Commission’s Maros Sefcovic will hold talks by video link on Monday afternoon, fuelling speculation that an agreement to resolve the problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol is close.”

It adds that No 10 has denied suggestions the Prime Minister had been forced to delay an announcement – which had been widely expected as early as this week – amid concerns of a backlash at Westminster.

Meanwhile Sammy Wilson, DUP Brexit spokesman in Westminster, said today that he fears the Government had gone into the negotiations with “an attitude of defeat,” conceding too much ground to the EU.

Asked if he thought there would be a deal this week, he said: “No I don’t. [Sunak] realises that there are barriers and hills to climb.”

••• AND MIGHT DOES THIS ‘DEAL’ INVOLVE? •••

Well, as yet it is uncertain. But the main idea floated so far is the imposition of red and green lanes at Northern Irish ports.

This would mean that lorries carrying cargo bound only for Northern Irish consumption would join the green lane and sail through without checks, instead of all vehicles being subject to inspection.

However, the DUP has indicated this would not be enough, because there is also the issue of the reach of EU law into Northern Ireland.

Since the Province is effectively treated as if it remains part of the EU single market under the current Brexit arrangements, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has oversight on trade matters concerning Northern Ireland.

(To quote the Protocol itself, “the provisions of this Protocol referring to Union law, or to concepts or provisions thereof, shall, in their implementation and application, be interpreted in conformity with the relevant case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union”.)

Mr Wilson also said that his party would not accept any agreement which kept Northern Ireland in the EU single market.

“If a deal is agreed which still keeps us in the EU single market, as ministers in the Northern Ireland Assembly we would be required by law to implement that deal – and we are not going to do that.

“Increasingly we would have to agree EU laws which diverge from UK laws, and in doing so would separate our own country from the United Kingdom.

“We are British and we expect to be governed by British law, not Brussels law.

"We would certainly not collaborate in administering Brussels law in our part of the United Kingdom.”

Dr Robert Basedow, an academic at the London School of Economics, offered this take on the situation last year:

"If London insists on revoking the ECJ’s jurisdiction, it would effectively render impossible Northern Ireland’s participation in the single market and force the EU to either give up on the Good Friday Agreement or to create a customs border between the Republic of Ireland and the single market."

This, he wrote, “would erode the basis for amicable relations between the EU and the UK”.

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