Numbers game shows DUP and SF are commandeering centre ground

Moreover, it was now the sort of numbers game in which the DUP and Sinn Fein would continue to grow, while the UUP, SDLP, Alliance and other ‘self-styled moderates and middle-ground would take a pretty big hit, because constitutional identity would trump all else’. Well, that’s exactly what happened. The UUP/SDLP/Alliance combined vote of 243,252 was 49,064 fewer than the DUP: while just 4,337 more than Sinn Fein.

When she launched her party manifesto Naomi Long, boasting of her chances in both East and South Belfast, said: “Two MPs representing a radical alternative to our political system – two MPs who will argue against the failing and tired old division and tribal politics, and make a case for NI that is free from sectarianism, forward-looking and celebrates its diversity. It would send a shockwave across NI and further afield. The politics of this society would be changed forever. It would signal to the world that NI wants to change direction.”

But nothing changed. There was no shockwave. Alliance didn’t come close to winning either seat; on a slightly increased turnout since March they saw their vote reduced by 8,164; and they went down from 9.1% to 7.9%.

Moderate, liberal unionism and nationalism took an even bigger hit. The UUP dropped 20,034 votes since March and lost their two seats. The SDLP contained their voter drop to 539, but still lost their three seats. For both parties the story is of continuing decline. And if, as I suspect, the ongoing polarisation of politics here continues, then their decline seems unstoppable. Proposed boundary changes (reducing the number of seats to 17) will see the electoral battle continue to focus on the DUP and Sinn Fein and that will have a knock-on effect on both Assembly and local council elections.

The difficulty, of course, is that it’s hard to know what role there can be for ‘moderate’ unionism and nationalism while the constitutional question remains so firmly at the fore. Ironically, Sinn Fein’s ‘outreach’ and ‘reconciliation’ project is geared towards ‘moderate’ unionists; yet, at the very same time, they are continuing to wolf down ‘moderate’ nationalism. The DUP does the same thing when it sucks the UUP into pacts, assorted ‘understandings’ and bodies like the ill-fated Unionist Forum in 2013.

Colum Eastwood claims he wants to work with ‘moderate’ unionists then hardens his stance on the need for a border poll, because he now believes that a ‘route to unity’ exists which didn’t exist before. The UUP and SDLP worked hard to build a consensual, ‘moderate’ alternative to the DUP/Sinn Fein axis, yet both parties failed to gather electoral rewards in March and June. Meanwhile, Alliance – which seemed to have a little spurt in March – has shrunk back again.

Reacting to David Campbell’s (the UUP’s former chairman and David Trimble’s chief of staff) decision to resign from the party, former leader Lord Empey noted: “We would point out to David that despite the DUP’s success in the election, for the first time in a Westminster election since Northern Ireland was formed, unionism received less than 50% of the vote. This is what needs addressing and there is currently no appetite for a one size fits all unionist party. Unionism needs to be a broader church and have a wider and more inclusive agenda than David suggests.”

I think that the loss of the unionist majority in the Assembly in March, and now the slippage at the general election (both of which I warned about), actually makes it much more difficult to broaden unionism. For in precisely the same way that Sinn Fein’s vote is rising because they believe unity is closer than ever (which I don’t think is true, by the way), so the DUP’s vote will rise, as unionists believe themselves to be under pressure.

Where we are now is the direct and inevitable consequence of the DUP/Sinn Fein arrangement in May 2007; everything is focused on them and they are seen as the only credible vehicles when it comes to expressing your identity re Irish unity or maintaining the Union. Alliance can continue to insist that it isn’t interested in headcount or identity politics yet, as election after election demonstrates, 90% of those who vote continue to vote for that type of politics; while those who don’t vote clearly aren’t attracted by Alliance.

Both the UUP and SDLP have tried to blend Orange and Green into turquoise, but the result has been lost votes and lack of direction. Margaret Ritchie, Alasdair McDonnell, Mark Durkan and Colum Eastwood all had pretty good relations with their UUP counterparts – but it didn’t amount to a hill of beans in terms of building and sustaining a centre ground. On June 8, UUP ‘liberals’ like Doug Beattie, Danny Kinahan, Mike Nesbitt and Robbie Butler (three of whom were in seats where it wasn’t possible for a non-unionist to win) all took a whopping hit. In other words, in terms of moderate vehicles to challenge the DUP and Sinn Fein, it now seems very improbable that the UUP, SDLP or Alliance can land a blow on them.

So, who can? At this point – no one. For a brief moment it looked as though NI21 might be capable of a breakthrough; but it became so bogged down in narcissism, in-fighting, lack of coherent policy and an extraordinarily convoluted identity crisis, that it imploded. There is no other vehicle on the horizon; and if there are strong, coherent voices ready to take on the political/electoral status quo then, I’m sorry, I’m not hearing or seeing them. Maybe people just need to face the fact that the DUP/Sinn Fein really are the middle ground here.