Sam McBride: Stormont’s deep divide is not only about the virus, but about the future

Politicians, philosophers, scientists and others are theorising about how society will look whenever this is over, however distant that may be.

Many of those changes remain uncertain and will be influenced by the length and severity of the virus.

But whatever the precise landscape into which we then emerge, life will not return to normality as we knew it prior to this horror.

The way we shop, the way we work, our reliance on technology and a thousand other aspects of our lives will be irrevocably altered.

Across much of the world, countries’ sense of national security has been shaken – not through fear of bullets or bombs, but the realisation that in a globalised economy most are vulnerable to supply chain interruptions and that in a crisis others may hoard what is valuable.

That may see manufacturing and food treated as issues of national security, with more protectionism – and also the paradoxical possibility of either war or greater international cooperation as nations retreat inwards or decide that they can only be secure if that security extends beyond their borders.

In a thoughtful Guardian article this week, the American writer Peter C Baker wrote that “whenever crisis visits a given community, the fundamental reality of that community is laid bare. Who has more and who has less. Where the power lies. What people treasure and what they fear. In such moments, whatever is broken in society gets revealed for just how broken it is...”

Already we see evidence of this at Stormont where January’s rhetoric of a new beginning, an end to departments working against each other and a new era of collective responsibility has evaporated – most dramatically in Michelle O’Neill’s brutal defenestration of Health Minister Robin Swann on prime time television on Thursday night.

Both the DUP and the UUP have been scathing about Sinn Féin, accusing the party of acting “disgracefully” in undermining Mr Swann’s efforts over recent weeks. Current and former very senior civil servants have this week spoken with private dismay, with one experienced and generally restrained former mandarin yesterday saying that Ms O’Neill’s attack on Mr Swann had been “shameful” and did nothing to help battle the virus.

However, Ms O’Neill’s frequent criticisms of Mr Swann’s actions, and accusation that he is “slavishly” following a flawed Westminster strategy which will cost lives, has significant public support.

Questions about the UK’s response to the pandemic have been growing in London over recent weeks and already a large section of the population had no confidence in Boris Johnson, even though he appears to be overwhelmingly following scientific and medical advice.

With the caveat that few of us know much about the complexities of responding to a pandemic, Stormont’s response to this crisis has appeared sluggish, compartmentalised and unquestionably confused – although some of the confusion stems from the contradictory positions adopted by DUP and Sinn Féin’ ministers.

Rather than share the blame for the actions of the Executive, Sinn Féin has adopted a position of GovOpposition – opposing the government not just from within, but from the top of the administration. That will have implications for other ministers’ willingness to share pain for decisions taken by Sinn Féin ministers, and could even lead to the UUP walking away entirely if it believes it is unable to work in these circumstances.

But Sinn Féin, Stormont’s most strategically astute party, will be aware that what happens over coming weeks may be of enormous significance in the border poll which it hopes will be called within a few years.

Although the NHS is a relatively modern institution, for decades it has been one of the jewels in the crown of the pragmatic argument for the Union. Even for some instinctive nationalists, the idea of paying 50 Euro to see a doctor is unsettling.

For years, the NHS has been creaking across the UK – but especially in Northern Ireland. Senior doctors say that any health system would be overwhelmed by a pandemic of this scale and it is far too early to meaningfully compare death rates on either side of the border.

But if this pandemic exposes that far from the NHS in Northern Ireland being better than the Republic’s healthcare system, that it could actually be worse, that would have enormous political implications.

Coupled with that could be the creation of an Irish NHS. Last week the Republic nationalised private hospitals, creating its first ever national single-tier health service.

That is only intended for the duration of the crisis, but there is a long history of temporary measures at times of national upheaval becoming permanent.

All of that is hypothetical – but will be in the minds of some senior Stormont figures.

In an interview with an American reporter in the wake of the 2016 vote for Brexit, Gerry Adams, Sinn Féin’s strategic mastermind for decades, spoke with unusual candour.

He told Vice News: “Never waste a crisis, never waste a difficulty...why should we pick up the bad collateral damage for a stupid decision taken in London?”

There is an ineluctable shared logic to that view of Northern Ireland being forced into a bad decision by London and Sinn Féin’s narrative about this crisis.

A pandemic is not an orange or green issue, but that does not mean that all politicians who define themselves by orange or green abandon those viewpoints for the duration of the emergency.

There is nothing inherently wrong with a politician viewing the world through the lens of their ideology; indeed it is difficult for anyone to fully set aside the ideas and aspirations which form their worldview.

Arlene Foster and UUP leader Steve Aiken have in recent days highlighted how Northern Ireland has benefited from being part of the UK – the chancellor’s vast economic stimulus, the NHS and the ability to procure ventilators – while Sinn Féin has argued that because Dublin’s strategy has been more consistently in line with the World Health Organisation’s advice that it is superior.

But most of the public would view it as inexcusable for ideological disputes to hamper efforts to save lives.

Most of the population is for now transfixed with fear or pursuing escapism, hoping that they and their loved ones survive the coming storm. But others are joining up the dots. Two and a half weeks ago, freelance journalist Amanda Ferguson tweeted: “First the Brexit shenanigans and now the comparisons between the British and Irish government coronavirus responses. New Irelanders may not even need to border poll canvas at this rate.”

Among those who retweeted the comment was senior Sinn Féin MLA Martina Anderson.

Most of us are not ideologues. Whatever our political preferences, they do not dominate our waking thoughts. But politics is a battle of ideas and it is generally those who are most committed and most ruthless who win.

This emergency has revealed broken elements of the existing world order in most countries. In most nations that may mean a change of government, or maybe economic changes. But in Northern Ireland there is an obvious and far more radical alternative – Irish unity.

However, there are also vast perils for politicians. If they are seen to be exploiting a humanitarian catastrophe for political gain, many of the public will be appalled.

But even if that is not the case, the emotions involved in this time of terror are such that in a community as divided as ours the response could become beyond control.

On the day in January that the Executive was restored, Michelle O’Neill said: “From today, the parties represented in the Chamber undertake to cooperate in every way that we can in order to rebuild public trust and confidence in, and engagement with, the Assembly and its Executive.”

That has gone. But we cannot yet know what will take its place.

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