Sir Jeffrey Donaldson resignation: DUP could still hold onto Lagan Valley seat in by-election but it could be close, say Prof Jon Tonge

The DUP could still hold the Lagan Valley Westminster seat after the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as party leader, a professor of politics has said.
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By Philip Bradfield
Published 29th Mar 2024, 21:42 BST
Updated 30th Mar 2024, 11:26 BST

However Prof Jon Tonge of Liverpool University believes it could be a "very close" competition with the Alliance MLA Sorcha Eastwood in any by-election.

"I think it's still holdable for the DUP, depending on the quality of the replacement candidate," he told the News Letter. "The [betting] price on Sorcha Eastwood winning tumbled quite a lot today. I didn't think Alliance had any chance actually taking Lagan Valley before now, in fact, I told Sorcha that recently at the Alliance Party conference. But I do think now given that a by-election - if Jeffrey Donaldson was to stand down - would be an opportunity for Alliance and I think it will be very close indeed."

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If it had been a general election contest for Lagan Valley he would place "good money" on the DUP.

Alliance MLA Sorcha Eastwood is likely to contest any Lagan Valley by-election in the wake of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's resignation as party leader. Pic credit: Alliance PartyAlliance MLA Sorcha Eastwood is likely to contest any Lagan Valley by-election in the wake of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's resignation as party leader. Pic credit: Alliance Party
Alliance MLA Sorcha Eastwood is likely to contest any Lagan Valley by-election in the wake of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson's resignation as party leader. Pic credit: Alliance Party

But it is not impossible Sir Jeffrey could still contest the seat in the next general election, he said.

"He has lost the party whip after being suspended whilst the legal process [of charges against him] plays out. Obviously if Jeffrey is aquitted of the charges, the expectation would be he would return to the DUP fold."

However he believes a by-election is more likely than not.

"I think Jeffrey Donaldson will concentrate his energies on fighting his legal case and will probably step down. I don't think that's a certainty but I think it is more likely than not, so I think there would be a by-election.

Prof Jon Tongue says the DUP could still retain the Lagan Valley Westminster seat after the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader.Prof Jon Tongue says the DUP could still retain the Lagan Valley Westminster seat after the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader.
Prof Jon Tongue says the DUP could still retain the Lagan Valley Westminster seat after the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader.
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"If there's not a by-election then the general election is impossible to predict because we don't know whether the legal case will be resolved by then.

"In all probability Jeffrey Donaldson's Westminster career has drawn to the close and his resignation [from his MP's seat] is more likely than not.

"He may of course think well, why should I resign? I'm an innocent man so why resign as MP? He may take that view and soldier on as an independent MP. But does he want to do that? I'm not sure. I can't really speculate on how Jeff is feeling in that sense."

Related topics:Jeffrey DonaldsonDUP