Survey suggests next Assembly election 'won't take NI into border poll territory' - with nationalist vote stalled
The next Assembly election will not take Northern Ireland into border poll territory – with a decline in the pro-Union vote having stopped and pro-united Ireland parties failing to grow their vote, a survey has suggested.
The latest assessment of voter intentions by the University of Liverpool shows that unionist parties have grown their vote share slightly to 41.6% since last year – despite a decline in support for the DUP.
Support for the main unionist party has dipped compared to the last Stormont election – with a rise for the TUV and Ulster Unionists.
Sinn Fein will keep most of their previous voters (96%) – with some “leakage” to the SDLP and non-constitutional parties, according to the survey – which finds no growth overall in the vote share for those wanting Northern Ireland to leave the UK.
The report argues that without nationalist parties gaining the support of voters who either do not vote, or vote for non-constitutional parties, “it seems very unlikely, at this stage, that we will enter border poll territory in 2027”.
Within unionism, the survey’s findings conclude that the DUP’s attempts to stop the flow to the TUV “has not been as effective as they would have hoped”.
Jim Allister’s party maintains 100% of its 2024 Westminster general election vote – compared to 77% for DUP and 87.5% for the Ulster Unionists. If this overall performance for pro-union parties is as predicted, the Liverpool report says it would suggest that the Assembly election in 2027 “would not be an election evidencing a referendum favouring Irish unity”.
A vote on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK can be called when the Secretary of State believes that a majority of people in the province would vote in favour of constitutional change. Hilary Benn has said that there is no evidence that is that case now, and such a vote is “is a long way off”.
The academic study also predicts a rise in parties (Alliance and Greens) with no expressed constitutional position – up from 15.4% at the last Stormont election to 17.7%.
The survey records Naomi Long’s Alliance Party as maintaining 83.2% of their Westminster vote – losing 1.8% both to the TUV and SF, 6.6% to the Greens and 7.1% to People Before Profit.
Growth of the non-constitutionally aligned block is due to a rise in support for the Greens – up to 5.1% of the vote – it says the party’s “foray into an electoral pact with the SDLP affected their recent electoral fortunes and pushed away pro-union voters”.
Support for Stormont remains strong among Sinn Fein, Alliance, UUP and SDLP voters – a majority of whom would not vote for a party which would bring down the local institutions. However, only 32.8% of DUP voters agreed with this sentiment, with almost 20% suggesting they would vote for a party that would collapse Stormont – and 33.6% were indifferent.
The University of Liverpool study questions the inability of the nationalist parties to “highlight the positive changes within Northern Ireland” since 1998 – saying this is “understandable given their narrative that the place is a sectarian construct that cannot change”.
But it describes as “bewildering” the “failure” of unionism to point to Northern Ireland’s successes.
It cites “significant real wage growth, growths in employment especially among professional workers, the role Northern Ireland plays in UK food and geopolitical security, specialisms in cybersecurity, fintech and zero emission technology and the affordability of housing and rents compared to the Republic” – all of which it argues unionism has failed to promote.
The academics say their survey shows that the Northern Ireland public “are less conversant with achievements especially around a more growth-oriented economy, reduced sectarian violence and rising wages”.
It says that without promoting the successes of devolution, unionists will not persuade the electorate of “the links between devolution, the Union and continuing economic growth and social prosperity”.
Prof. Pete Shirlow, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the university said: “Again we find evidence of a society that is more complex than the stereotype of Catholic v Protestant and nationalist v unionist. Respondents are now identifying in ways that make predicting the future of Northern Ireland less contingent upon past identities. It would seem, at this stage, that the Assembly Election in 2027 will not take Northern Ireland into border poll territory”.
The Liverpool survey is based on a sample of 1534 Northern Ireland electors aged 18+. It was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted to be representative of Northern Ireland’s population. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5% and fieldwork was undertaken between 1 and 14 November 2025 by Social Market Research.