Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says border poll not a good idea at the moment because it would prove divisive and ‘indications are that it will be defeated’

“The reason why I don’t think it’s a good idea at the moment is the indications are that it will be defeated, and it will also be divisive,” he said in Brussels on Friday.

“And that’s why the focus has to be on getting the Good Friday Agreement working again, and institutions up and running.

“We see all around the world, what happens when important referendums fall. I remember the referendum on an Australian republic 25 years ago, pretty far away, was defeated, independence in Quebec, for example… in Scotland.

“I think having a referendum on such an important matter that you may not win is fraught with risk, defeat division. And if we’re going to win a referendum on that matter, a huge amount of work has to be done to convince the British people in Northern Ireland, those who have a unionist/loyalist/Protestant/British identity, that they’re welcome, that they’re wanted, that a united Ireland would be a warm home for them, and there’s not enough talk about that quite frankly.”

Super majority

Mr Varadkar said that Northern Ireland Office minister Steve Baker was “absolutely entitled to express his opinions” on requiring a super majority in a poll on Irish unity.

“I know on occasions people have even questioned my right to have an opinion. I do have an opinion on these things, Steve Baker does too,” Mr Varadkar said on Friday.

“I totally respect that and would offer no criticism of the fact that he’s thinking about these things and expressing views.

“I understand the argument in favour of a supermajority. You know, 50% plus one would not be the most desirable outcome, we would much rather see a convincing majority for unification if and when a border poll comes.

“I don’t think the time is right for that. I think it’s quite distant in fact, for reasons I’ve explained in the past.

“I suppose the difficulty with a supermajority is how long could you keep the status quo in place, if consistently, a majority of people didn’t want that status quo?”

Earlier this week, Mr Baker expressed regret that the Brexit referendum did not require a supermajority to pass, and suggested any vote on Irish unity should also use such a threshold.

The Northern Ireland Office minister and leading Brexiteer said that a “50% plus one” majority would not be advisable for a vote on Irish unification.

The 2016 vote on leaving the European Union passed with a roughly 52%-48% split.

Mr Baker told the 65th plenary of the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly (BIPA) at the K Club in Co Kildare that the referendum “probably should have been a supermajority” of at least 60%.

Mr Baker, who was a strident supporter of withdrawing from the European Union, acknowledged the referendum would have failed under such a supermajority.

However, he said such a threshold would have removed the difficulty of politicians not accepting the result.