Three-quarters of non-voters support the Union, major academic study finds

Until now, much of the debate on a border poll has centred around the percentage of voters who back unionist or nationalist parties in elections – and the growing number of people voting for constitutionally agnostic parties such as Alliance.

But the Social Market Research survey of 2,000 people for the University of Liverpool questions the assumption that how people vote in elections is necessarily reflective of how those who turn out in any referendum on Irish unity will vote.

Some of the headline figures from the poll – which was carried out in December in the wake of the General Election and which involved face-to-face interviews – were released two weeks ago, but the full results have now been published.

In a report setting out the findings, the lead author of the research project, Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool, said: “In terms of a border poll, election results may be a less accurate a guide to the desire for reunification especially when it is considered that 76.9% of non-voters who stated a preference are pro-Union.

“In 2019, non-voters numbered circa 500,000.”

As well as non-voters, a critical group in deciding the outcome of any border poll will be Alliance voters. The survey found that 58.8% of Alliance voters support the Union and 25.6% want Irish unity.

Overall, the survey found 53.5% of the sample support remaining in the UK, rising to 65% when those who said they don’t know, expressed other preferences or refused to answer are excluded.

Strikingly, 63.1% of those who do not know what the long-term constitutional future should be (15.2% of the sample) are Catholics. Professor Tonge said that “if they shifted either way, they would have a significant impact upon a border poll”.

The survey was also run in 2010, allowing comparisons as to how voters have shifted in that period.

Reflecting the increased tribalism in Northern Ireland, between 2010 and 2019 the share of Protestants who support remaining in the Union grew from 90.3% to 94.5%, while the share of Catholics supportive of remaining in the Union declined from 17.8% to 13.6%.

The survey also found a significant shift in favour of a truth and reconciliation commission, up from 31.5% in favour in 2017 to 45.7%.

A more decisive majority – 62.8% – would now vote to remain in the EU, the poll found, with just one in 10 people saying that they would not vote in a second EU referendum.

An identical percentage of people – 68.5% – expressed their opposition to checks on goods either crossing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or across the Irish border.

The research found overwhelming support for restoration of devolution, with just 2% opposition. However, in an apparently contradictory finding, just 43.8% agreed that devolved power-sharing is better than direct rule.

The survey found that – according to voters, at least – the two most important issues in December’s election were Brexit and the NHS. Combined, they captured 46.4% of all responses regarding the most important election issues.

However, in third place was the RHI scandal at 9.1% – higher than the environment, housing, poverty, education and crime.

The study found that 69.5% of Catholics, compared to 10.7% of Protestants and 22.4% of the non-religious support an Irish Language Act.

Some 72.1% of people supported the right to an abortion in some circumstances.

However, most were supportive in the highly restrictive circumstance of where the mother’s life is in danger – the law as it was in Northern ireland until last year’s change. Just 9.2% of women and 5.4% of men supported abortion up to 28 weeks.