Windsor Framework: Majority see 'negative impact on stability' Unionist opposition to Protocol ‘entrenched’

Opposition to the Protocol dropped slightly, from 40% to 35%. However, almost a quarter of respondents say they will only vote for Stormont candidates who are in favour of scrapping the Protocol.

55% see the Protocol impacting negatively on political stability in Northern Ireland, down on the 59 – 68% in previous polls conducted for the university by LucidTalk.

Almost two thirds of respondents (64%) agree that with the Windsor Framework, the Assembly and Executive should be restored and fully functioning. Almost a third (31%) disagree - and those respondents were overwhelmingly unionist.

Overall, the poll suggests that the Windsor Framework has majority support, with 6 in 10 polled (60%) agreeing that its the "best available compromise for addressing the concerns of people in NI with the original Protocol"; with one third (33%) disagreeing.

The figures highlight the gulf between a significant section of unionism and the rest of society with regard to the sea border and Stormont. It would be a huge challenge for the DUP to overcome this and return to Stormont without significant gains from the government, based on these figures.

That’s because according to this poll, a significant section of the electorate say they will cast their vote based on a candidate's stance on the Protocol. Almost three quarters (23%) will only vote for candidates in a Northern Ireland Assembly election who are in favour of scrapping the Protocol entirely. There is no prospect of that happening under the current government or a Labour administration.

How the level of opposition to the protocol within unionism actually translates in a future election, will only ever become clear at the ballot box. However, it shows how much opposition to the Irish sea border has embedded itself within the unionist electorate.

Much of the discussion among grassroots unionists - who are almost universally opposed to the protocol - has been focused on whether or not the DUP should go back in. Any deal the DUP achieves will be forensically scrutinised by other anti-protocol activists, some of whom are fundamentally opposed to powersharing.

The party has recently placed an emphasis on how central Stormont is to the argument for maintaining the Union, and insists more can be achieved in its talks with the government.

The polling was conducted for a report by academics from Queen's University Belfast; including Professor David Phinnemore. He said: “Views on the Protocol/Windsor Framework have become entrenched. While a majority generally view the Protocol/Windsor Framework favourably, the numbers have barely changed since early summer.

"Most voters are broadly accepting or supportive of the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements; and the clear majority believe the Assembly and Executive should now be back up and running. However, opposition the Protocol/Windsor Framework arrangements persists, particularly among voters identifying as ‘strongly unionist’. And that opposition appears for many to be very much a matter of principle with very limited evidence that the position is likely to change”.